The Cologne investment market recorded a transaction volume of just under €661 million in the first three quarters of 2026. Whilst this figure falls well short of the strong turnover figures from 2017 to 2021 – when volumes of between €1.0 and around €1.5 billion were regularly recorded by the end of the third quarter – However, when these results are viewed in the context of the last five years – which were largely characterised by a very challenging financial market environment – the average figure is in line with the current result (€677 million). Cologne is not alone in this respect – only two leading markets, Munich (€1.7 billion) and Hamburg (€1.2 billion), managed to exceed the €1 billion threshold, which also casts Cologne’s performance in a more favourable light. This is the finding of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“Further evidence that investment activity in the North Rhine-Westphalia metropolis has been livelier so far this year than the volume figures suggest can also be found in the number of deals: with around 30 transactions, the number of sales between the start of January and the end of September has reached a comparatively high level. The main reason for the nevertheless modest performance is therefore primarily the low average deal volume, which currently stands at only around €21 million,” said David Braun, Head of the Cologne branch of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Capital market interest rates, which have recently risen significantly once again, are broadly reflected in rising prime yields (+10 basis points in Q3 across all property types): retail assets currently yield 4.10 per cent, whilst offices and logistics properties are yielding up to 4.70 per cent.
Offices once again dominate, with a healthy volume of transactions
Particularly against the backdrop of a market environment that remains challenging across all locations, the performance of the Cologne office investment market is worth highlighting: whilst no exceptionally high volume was achieved, the Q1–3 result was slightly above average when compared with other prime locations and the last five years in Cologne. Overall, as in the same period last year, the office sector accounted for over
70 per cent of market activity (just under 71 per cent), which should be seen as a clear indication of this asset class’s dominance. In addition to a few larger properties, such as a 30,000 m² complex in the MediaPark, it was primarily smaller office properties in city centre or attractive semi-central locations, such as Ehrenfeld/Braunsfeld, that changed hands.
Apart from office transactions, logistics properties (accounting for just over 17 per cent) and investments grouped under the umbrella category ‘Other’ (almost 8 per cent) are among the sectors with further significant market shares. In the logistics sector, the similarly high number of deals is striking (10 transactions), with the “Log Plaza Frechen” logistics centre representing the largest sale at around €40 million. The “Other” investments primarily comprise plots of land and brownfield sites in the Cologne market area.
The breakdown of turnover across location categories within the Cologne market area reflects the distribution of office investments, which, with a few exceptions, are situated in the city centre (just under 52 per cent) and on the outskirts of the city centre (just over 21 per cent).
Outlook
“Given the investment market environment, which remains challenging, the Cologne market has recorded a result that, whilst not outstanding, is broadly satisfactory. The underlying momentum in the smaller categories is generally buoyant, and major deals are only seen in isolated cases, not only in Cologne but also in other major investment centres. It is encouraging to note that Cologne is able to keep pace with most of the leading markets, particularly in the important office segment,” explains Lars Faßbender, Head of the Cologne branch of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Looking ahead to the end of 2026, the economic forecasts – which have been revised significantly upwards – in particular send out an encouraging signal. Pricing within the context of acquisition processes is likely to remain the decisive factor in the final quarter of the year. The fundamental prerequisite for stronger transaction momentum remains robust financing structures and purchase prices that take into account both earnings prospects and property-specific investment requirements. Provided these parameters are in place and the end-user markets receive a boost from the economic cycle, the Cologne investment market has repeatedly demonstrated its high appeal to investors in the past.
However, prime yields have shown that prices remain under pressure across all asset classes. Consequently, it is to be expected that values across the various property types could well rise again by the end of the year.
