Increase in sales and purchase cases.
According to analyses by Aengevelt Research, turnover on the Berlin property market increased moderately by around 4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Despite the slight increase, the trend reversal for real estate prices seems to have been achieved. Accordingly, Aengevelt forecasts a stable to slightly rising price development on the Berlin property market for the remainder of 2024 and a transaction volume above the previous year's figure for 2024 as a whole.
According to evaluations by the Expert Committee for Property Values in Berlin, the Berlin real estate market is showing a moderately positive development in the first half of 2024: With a total cash turnover of around EUR 6.13 billion (asset deals), the value of the same period of the previous year (1st half of 2023: approx. EUR 5.89 billion) is exceeded by around 4%. The most recent ten-year average (Ø 1st half of 2014 – 2023: EUR 7.4 billion) is missed by around 17%.
The number of purchase cases increased by around 15% year-on-year to 9,333 (H1 2023: 8,126), but remains around 27% below the ten-year average (Ø H1 2014 – 2023: 12,742).
According to analyses by the research team of DIP founding partner Aengevelt, both undeveloped land (+8%), developed land (+17%) and residential/part-ownership (+15%) recorded growth.
In terms of cash turnover, undeveloped land recorded a percentage decline of -35% to EUR 272 million, while developed land was at the previous year's level at around EUR 3.13 billion. In the first half of 2024, the residential/part-ownership segment showed an increasing momentum, with the transaction volume increasing by around 17% year-on-year to around EUR 2.73 billion.
Detached and semi-detached houses also showed a positive development, with a 21% increase in the number of purchase cases to 1,139 (H1 2023: 942). Cash turnover rose somewhat more moderately by around 11% to around EUR 698.4 million.
Differentiated developments in the investment sector.
Different developments can be observed in the investment segment:
- For example, the number of purchase cases in the area of rental residential buildings (excluding commercials) rose from 148 in the first half of 2023 to 174 in the first half of 2024. Cash turnover increased by around 38% to EUR 822.4 million (H1 2023: EUR 594.1 million).
Accordingly, the average purchase price per purchase has risen from around EUR 4 million to around EUR 4.73 million in the course of 2024 so far.
- In the case of individual purchases of residential and commercial buildings, the number of purchases increased by only three to 105. Cash turnover, on the other hand, increased significantly by 52% to EUR 905.5 million (H1 2023: EUR 530.5 million).
Accordingly, the average purchase price per purchase price rose significantly from around EUR 5.2 million in the first half of 2023 to around EUR 8.6 million in the course of 2024 so far.
- In the office/commercial building segment (including retail properties), on the other hand, the number of purchases fell from 34 to 27 sales in the first half of 2024. Cash turnover even fell by around 79% to EUR 229.5 million (H1 2023: EUR 1,118.4 million).
Aengevelt forecasts moderate increase in sales for the full year 2024."
The analyses show a positive trend reversal on the Berlin property market, despite renewed declines in individual areas," explains Magdalena Kolak, Senior Analyst at Aengevelt Research, adding: "In view of the expected further interest rate cuts by the ECB and a second half of the year with stronger turnover, experience has shown that total turnover on the Berlin real estate market of around EUR 15 billion is realistic for 2024."
This figure would exceed the previous year's result (2023: approx. EUR 14.1 billion) by around 6%. According to Magdalena Kolak, however, it points to a continued subdued land market, especially since the ten-year average (Ø 2014 – 2023: approx. EUR 22.7 billion p.a.) would be significantly missed by around 34%.
