Wüest Partner publishes new nursing home atlas with an overview of the main developments in the nursing home market in 400 cities and districts
In Germany, the care sector continues to face noticeable challenges: the shortage of skilled workers, an outdated building stock, rising costs and the urgent need for a comprehensive care and support reform. At the same time, the demographic development with a continuously aging society and the associated increase in people in need of care is further exacerbating the situation. In addition, new construction activities are still faltering. And yet opportunities open up for investors if they pay attention to location and quality.
With the study "Nursing Home Atlas Germany 2025 – Data & Perspectives", Wüest Partner offers an up-to-date overview of the main developments in the nursing home market and in-depth information for investors in nursing homes. The study contains a detailed forecast of the future care needs and the necessary facilities until 2040 for German cities and districts.
2023: 5.69 million people in need of care nationwide
In 2023, 5.69 million people were in need of care nationwide - an increase of 14.7 percent compared to 2021. The care rate in 2023 was 6.7 percent, 0.7 percentage points higher than in 2021. There are immense regional differences: The eastern federal states record significantly higher rates with peak values of 8.3 percent in Brandenburg and 9.1 percent in Thuringia. In these regions, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is above average. The lowest rates are found in Bavaria (4.7 percent) and Hamburg (5.1 percent).
On the other hand, the number of nursing homes with partial or full inpatient services increased only slightly nationwide to 16,505 (+2.4 percent), the number of available nursing places to 988,951 (+0.4 percent). Of these, 874,562 places were in full inpatient facilities.
People in need of care have to spend an average of just under 3,000.00 euros per month on a care place, around 500 euros more than in 2023. About a third of the residents of inpatient facilities are now dependent on social welfare.
NRW needs almost 30,000 additional nursing places by 2040
By 2040, an additional demand of 145,937 nursing places is forecast in Germany, which corresponds to 1,459 new nursing homes with 100 places each. The populous states of North Rhine-Westphalia (+28,879 places), Bavaria (+27,127) and Baden-Württemberg (+20,089) are particularly hard hit.
At the level of rural districts and independent cities, Berlin is the clear leader with an absolute need of 3,849 places, followed by Hamburg with 1,649 places. Among the districts, the Hanover region (1,527), the Steinfurt district (1,495) and the Ortenau district (1,456) are in the lead.
On the other hand, however, according to the forecast, a mathematical oversupply of nursing home places could occur in some cities. According to this, for example, in Magdeburg, Chemnitz, Dresden, Dessau-Roßlau, Jena and Munich, more places would be available than are needed. Wüest Partner therefore advises taking into account the existing supply situation on site and carefully examining capacity expansion.
Investment pressure and ESG challenges
Nursing homes are considered operator properties with a high degree of regulation and complex management. The study shows that around half of the facilities no longer meet current ESG and structural standards. Energy-efficient renovations, accessibility and digital infrastructure are overdue in many places. Rising construction and operating costs as well as the shortage of skilled workers are placing an additional burden on operators and making it difficult to finance new projects. This opens up considerable value creation potential for investors and project developers – at the same time, the pressure on operators to modernise in good time is growing.
"Nursing homes are a strategic investment field with high social relevance. Those who focus on ESG-compliant modernization, future-proof usage concepts and stable operator structures at an early stage are positioning themselves sustainably in a market that is facing far-reaching changes," says Thomas Lehmann, Director at Wüest Partner.
New forms of living in demand
In addition to classic nursing homes, the "assisted living" segment is coming more into focus. Demand is increasing, especially among seniors over 80 years of age. According to analyses by Terranus GmbH, rents are up to 50 percent higher than the local rent index, depending on the equipment and location. For investors, this segment offers attractive return opportunities if the choice of location, service concept and pricing are in line with the market.
Consolidation and operator quality as key
The operator landscape continues to consolidate. Larger providers are expanding their market shares, while smaller providers are under economic pressure. For investors, creditworthiness, company history and staff retention are decisive criteria when selecting partners. The study recommends a well-founded location and competition analysis as a basis for sustainable investment decisions.
