Retail investment market: Good number of deals not reflected in volume

The interim balance on the retail investment market at mid-2026 is divided into two parts: On the one hand, an above-average number of transactions was registered compared to the last five years. Such a number was last registered in the first half of 2022. Part of the truth, however, is that this cannot be seen in the investment turnover, which at around €2.3 billion fell by almost 21% compared to the same period last year. This was due to very subdued market activity in the last three months (only around €892 million in Q2), while the Retail division underlined at the beginning of the year that quarterly sales of almost €1.5 billion (around €1.37 billion in Q1) are also quite possible. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate

"However, the major revenue drivers have been missing recently: Almost 95% of all deals fell below the €50 million mark in the second quarter, and a good 73% of the investments can even be assigned to the categories up to a maximum of €20 million. The largest sales in the current year so far in the portfolio sector have included the sale of the Powerfoods portfolio, which consists of 37 food markets and retail parks, and in the individual deal segment the high-street prestige properties Alsterhaus in Hamburg, Alte Akademie in Munich and the Höfe am Brühl shopping centre in Leipzig," explains Christoph Scharf, Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH and Head of Retail Services.

Not least due to the above-mentioned high-street investments, both commercial (a good 22%) and department stores (around 12%) posted an increase in earnings. However, the food and specialist retail sector remains clearly dominant with over 51% of the volume and 58% of the deals. But shopping centers also have a good market share of just under 14%.

The A-locations can post a much livelier half-year balance sheet in the current year than in 2025: At a good € 895 million, they achieved significantly higher sales than in the same period of the previous year (around € 335 million), which was mainly driven by smaller investments. Overall, all top investment markets even recorded increased results in the first six months.

The southern and northern metropolises of Munich (€229 million) and Hamburg (€226 million) are at the top of the list – driven by the two high-street top deals of the Alte Akademie and the Alsterhaus. Berlin (€167 million) and Düsseldorf (€165 million) also made further significant contributions to sales, with the assets of the Powerfoods portfolio playing the most important role in the capital, while smaller, often luxury-anchored high-street properties were repeatedly reported in the North Rhine-Westphalian state capital. The Frankfurt (€59 million), Stuttgart (€42 million) and Cologne (€7 million) locations contributed only to a small extent to the overall result.

In the second quarter, there were slight changes in net prime yields for individual property types: DIY stores rose by 25 basis points to 6.20% and shopping centers rose by 10 basis points to 6.00%. In contrast, individual supermarkets/discounters (4.90%) and retail parks (4.60%) were able to maintain their values over the course of the year.

Even though the retail investment market was characterised by relatively subdued market activity in the second quarter, the high number of deals and the broad distribution of revenue across the various property lines give cause for optimism for the third quarter. This is also reflected in the asset class comparison, where the retail sector continues to contribute the most transactions in the commercial real estate market compared to the other two top segments of office and logistics properties.

Especially against the background that the geopolitical and financial market-driven uncertainties that still exist are often expressed in lengthy marketing periods, it is not unusual for a quarterly result considered in isolation to develop less dynamics. In this context, both the marketing approaches already underway and the recently initiated marketing approaches conceal very good sales potential in the short to medium term. This applies not least to food and retail investments, which, with a current market share of more than 50%, could also make the difference between a lower or increased overall balance sheet in the second half of the year. In addition, in the high-street segment, commercial buildings with internationally renowned luxury anchor tenants are always in focus.

"With regard to the development of prime yields, it can be assumed that they will also be relatively heterogeneous in the third quarter, depending on the type of property and location. Overall, however, only marginal changes are to be expected, especially against the background of the slight increases in yields that have already been registered," says Christoph Scharf.