BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes figures on the retail investment market for the 4th quarter of 2025.
At the end of the year, the retail investment market can look back on a solid year 2025 as a whole: With a transaction volume of around €6.5 billion, the current result is at a comparable level to the previous year (+3% compared to 2024). The final quarter made a decisive contribution to this balance sheet, marking the best quarterly result since Q3 2022 at almost €2.4 billion. This was once again mainly due to sales-driving special effects: With the Oberpolliger and the Corbinian in Munich and the Karstadt on Berlin’s Kurfürstendamm, three large-volume Signa properties in the three-digit million segment changed hands between October and the end of December.
The complexity of market activity at the moment is also underlined by the fact that all types of properties benefit from sales in the three-digit million range. Despite all this, the specialist retail sector clearly confirms its top position (a good 48%) thanks to the takeover of the Porta Group from XXXLutz as well as larger food and FMZ portfolios, among other things. In the case of department stores (almost 20%), the former Signa properties are particularly important, in the case of shopping centres, in addition to the designer outlets Neumünster and Wustermark, the Gropius Passagen in Berlin are among the drivers, and in the high-street segment (around 13%), two major deals by luxury commercial buildings in Düsseldorf are primarily to be mentioned.
A-cities: Department store deals contribute 52% to volume
“The dynamic transaction activity in the fourth quarter also had a decisive impact on the investment volume of the top markets: a good €1.1bn or around 60% of the total turnover of the A-locations (just under €2bn) was crossed the finish line at the end of the year,” explains Christoph Scharf, Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH and Head of Retail Services.
However, only four of the seven major investment markets with larger volumes – Munich (€896 million), Berlin (€512 million), Düsseldorf (€304 million) and Hamburg (€195 million) – participated in this balance. The Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Cologne locations, on the other hand, were only able to report very small-scale investments and their results remained well below the €50 million mark.
Overall, it can therefore be said that apart from the large-volume Signa properties, only a few three-digit million deals can still be observed in the top markets and the still high prices in high-street locations are difficult to maintain. Accordingly, prime yields in a 12-month comparison have risen slightly in some cities. In the city ranking, Munich (3.45%) continues to be ahead of Frankfurt (3.75%), followed by Berlin (3.85%) and Hamburg (3.85%) as well as Cologne (3.90%), Düsseldorf (3.95%) and Stuttgart (3.95%). In the other types of properties, retail parks currently account for 4.65%, individual supermarkets/discounters are at 4.90%, and up to 5.80% can be achieved for top assets in DIY stores and shopping centres.
Prospects
At the end of 2025, the retail investment market was able to draw attention to itself once again and make the best final spurt in the asset class comparison. On the one hand, with the Porta takeover and the sales of the former Signa properties, two decisive special effects play a role in the overall balance sheet. On the other hand, however, the comparatively high number of registered retail investments also underlines that the investment activity is broadly based and is not limited to the major sales drivers.
For 2026, it can be assumed that the focus of demand for property types will remain particularly on retail park and food investments as well as portfolios in this segment. In addition to the assets in the food retail sector, which have been popular for many years, non-food properties and portfolios have also gradually positioned themselves very successfully in the specialist retail segment. In addition, especially in the second half of the year, it has become apparent that the price expectations in the shopping center segment are now closer together again on the buyer and seller side, opening up attractive entry opportunities for investors.
“High-street investments in highly frequented consumer or established luxury locations in good macro locations also remain in demand, but also price-sensitive assets. Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen in which direction prime yields will develop in 2026. However, sideways movements are most likely at the beginning of the year,” says Christoph Scharf.
