BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes investment market figures for Q4 2025
The nationwide logistics investment market will reach a transaction volume of €6.2 billion in 2025, which is both 10% below the previous year’s level and below the ten-year average (-18%). Although the market was again much more lively than in the two previous years, which is reflected in an increased number of deals, noticeably fewer large-volume investments were made. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“Particularly noteworthy is the development of individual deals, which have increased by 17% compared to the previous year and are thus trading in the range of their ten-year average. At just over €4.1 billion, they alone account for 67% of the total volume, which corresponds to the highest share in the past ten years. Portfolio transactions, on the other hand, only reach an investment volume of just over €2 billion, which is around 39% below the previous year’s level and also below the long-term average. In the first half of the year in particular, only smaller packages were sold. In the second half of the year, however, this segment picked up noticeably again and accounted for the majority of portfolio investments at 80%,” explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Mainly due to the still high borrowing costs, net prime yields increased in the course of the year at all A locations. In the fourth quarter, they rose by 10 basis points to 4.50%, and in Leipzig they are now 4.70%. Compared to the previous year, the increase is 25 basis points.
Strong performance of deals in the mid-size segment, international investors particularly active
The major markets of Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig, Munich and Stuttgart achieve a total logistics transaction volume of €1.74 billion. Berlin, Munich and Stuttgart recorded some significant increases compared to the previous year. Across all major locations, there is an increase of around 2% compared to the previous year, while the deviation from the long-term average is -7% and is thus significantly lower than in the market as a whole.
The distribution of investments by size class shows a comparatively even picture, as the share of large-volume deals over €100 million is just under 27% (previous year: 50%). The excellent performance of transactions in the smaller and medium-sized segment is impressive. The €10 to €25 million class has broken the €1 billion mark for only the third time ever, deals between €50 million and €100 million are up 21% year-on-year, and the €25 to €50 million segment sets a new record of just under €1.8 billion, which is an impressive 42% above the ten-year average.
Around 70% of logistics investments are attributable to foreign investors, who are investing less in absolute terms than in the very strong previous year, but are still in the range of the long-term average of €4.3 billion. German investments increase by 10%.
Perspectives: positive developments from 2025 should continue, increasing momentum expected in the course of the year
The logistics investment market has certainly shown positive momentum in 2025. The overall increase in the number of transactions, the momentum in individual deals and the high volumes of small and medium-sized deals are particularly noteworthy.
For 2026, it can be assumed that the general conditions are likely to remain challenging, especially in the first half of the year. Positive impetus for the still weakening economic development is expected in the course of the year from the special funds for infrastructure and environmental measures as well as the financial leeway for defence measures. In addition, urgently needed reforms to strengthen the business location should be implemented and show initial effect. In addition, however, the rather increasing geopolitical crises and military conflicts as well as the erratic US policy remain a major factor of uncertainty for the global economy and investor sentiment.
“Nevertheless, it is to be expected that the logistics investment market will continue to be robust in 2026 and will develop at least in a stable way. With economic momentum brightening over the course of the year and less volatile financing conditions, it should also be possible to conclude more large-volume transactions again, which could ensure a correspondingly higher investment volume,” says Christopher Raabe.
