BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes data on the logistics market for the 1st quarter of 2026
The nationwide warehouse and logistics space market has made an excellent start to 2026. With take-up of 1.5 million m², it not only exceeded the previous year’s result by an impressive 30%, but also exceeded the ten-year average by 3%. Particularly against the backdrop of the geopolitical and economic conditions, this is a very pleasing result that builds on the continued market recovery of the previous year. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“In the 1st quarter of 2026, the trends already observed last year will continue. A significantly higher number of contracts was registered than in each of the years after 2022, and significantly more large-scale contracts were concluded again. The space segment alone with contracts over 20,000 m² has increased by an impressive 69% compared to the previous year. Overall, and especially in the case of large-scale contracts, logistics service providers are the strongest demand group. This often includes orders from the e-commerce sector that logistics service providers commission to handle their business,” explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
The top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich) achieved a combined take-up of 632,000 m², which corresponds to an increase of a good 25% compared to the previous year and is well above the average (+12%). The individual markets are showing different developments. The Cologne market achieved the highest take-up with an extraordinary record result of 152,000 m² (+375%) – supported by two very large leases. Hamburg follows in second place with 126,000 m² (+1%), Berlin secures third place with 107,000 m² (+39%) and Frankfurt also exceeds the 100,000 m² mark with 104,000 m² (+65%). After a record take-up in the previous year, Düsseldorf recorded a minus of 35%, but still achieved an above-average result of 66,000 m². While Munich grew by 73% to 57,000 m², momentum in Leipzig was still low in the 1st quarter (20,000 m²; -73%). In addition, the Ruhr region also recorded a strong start to the year with 120,000 m² (+52%).
In the sectoral distribution of nationwide take-up, the logistics service providers mentioned at the beginning stand out. With a market share of just under 46% or over 700,000 m², they achieved the highest result in absolute terms over the past ten years, which is still slightly higher than in the boom year of 2022. Although manufacturing companies (23%) and retail (19%) are also in demand for more space than in the 1st quarter of 2025, they are each quite far from their long-term average. This also shows that many companies from these industries make use of the services of logistics service providers, especially in economically difficult times, in order to be able to react flexibly to market requirements.
The rent level rose slightly again in individual locations in the 1st quarter. In terms of prime rents, Berlin (€8.30/m²; +1%) and Hamburg (€8.80/m²; +4%) each recorded an increase compared to the end of 2025. However, Munich is still the undisputed leader in the distribution at €11.25/m², followed by Frankfurt and now Hamburg with €8.80/m² each. Also at least €8.00/m² should be assessed in Düsseldorf (€8.70/m²), Cologne (€8.20/m²) and the Ruhr area (€8.00/m²). Only in Leipzig is the price level significantly lower at €5.70/m². Compared to the previous year, prime rents have risen by an average of a good 4% across the top markets, while average rents have risen by 5% on average.
Prospects
The nationwide warehouse and logistics space market has started the year with the best take-up result since 2022, proving how robust the rental market is despite the current challenges. Geopolitical risks have increased again with the outbreak of the Iran war, and the impact on the economy from rising energy prices, rising inflation rates, and changes in trade flows and supply chains depend on the further course of this conflict. In addition, US customs policy remains a factor of uncertainty.
On the other hand, growth impulses for the German economy are to be expected from the investment packages for infrastructure and defense, from which the logistics market in particular should benefit. In addition, it can be assumed that the expansion of Asian e-commerce companies will continue and will increasingly extend to regions other than North Rhine-Westphalia.
Due to the restrained speculative construction activity in the recent past, the availability of space is likely to come back into focus in some market areas. While there is a supply surplus in markets such as Leipzig, demand in other logistics hubs such as Frankfurt or Munich is limited by too little space available at short notice, which is also likely to have an impact on rental prices.
“From today’s perspective, take-up in excess of the 6 million m² mark is again expected for 2026 as a whole. Since the start of the year is often still somewhat subdued and the quarterly results tend to increase over the course of the year, the previous year’s figure of 6.1 million m² should be exceeded,” says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, summarising the further outlook.
