DIP partner Aengevelt Immobilien analyses the recent increases in real wages as good opportunities for the real estate industry, especially for residential, retail and logistics properties. In the third quarter of 2025, nominal wages rose by 4.9% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Taking into account the current inflation rate of 2.3%, this results in a real wage increase of 2.7%. The real wage losses that occurred in the previous years 2022/23 have thus already been more than compensated. In addition, the minimum wage will increase to EUR 13.90 from January 2026. According to Aengevelt’s real estate industry assessment, the associated gains in purchasing power will have a positive impact on retail sales in particular and thus also on the logistics industry. In addition, the ability to pay rents on the housing markets is improving.
The sharp real wage losses that occurred from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2023 were mainly driven by the high increases in consumer prices, especially for energy. Since then, the inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index of the Federal Statistical Office, has been declining again, even though selective price increases in individual product groups are repeatedly discussed in the media. The wage increases of recent years have led to wage increases that significantly exceed the inflation rate. For example, the real wage index already recorded an increase of 3.1% in 2024 compared to the previous year. After calming down in the first two quarters of 2025, real wage growth now reached 2.7%.
In the retail sector, a further increase in sales can therefore be expected for 2025. The sales forecast of the German Retail Association (HDE), which has forecast a real increase in sales of 0.5% year-on-year for 2025 as a whole, can be considered conservative, according to Aengevelt. In fact, Aengevelt expects a significantly higher increase in retail sales, which will also be reflected in a gradual increase in space requirements if it solidifies. Since online trade is also participating disproportionately in the real wage increases, Aengevelt also sees the logistics industry on an upward trend, which will lead to an increasing interest in needs-based logistics locations, which, however, is still meeting a (too) scarce supply of land in many places.
Residential real estate will also benefit from the real wage increases because the ability to pay rents improves. The Landlord Index 2025, which was compiled by Immocloud and EBS Universität on the basis of 400,000 tenancies, adjusts the rent level for regional purchasing power. If, for example, the sustainably high purchasing power in Munich is taken into account, the nominal rent corrects from EUR 18.08/m² to EUR 14.29/m², which can be interpreted as meaning that the Munich housing market still has a rent increase potential of up to 21% despite its leading position in the area of nominal rents. Taking purchasing power into account, a rent increase potential of 10% was calculated for Düsseldorf, 9.5% for Stuttgart and 8% for Frankfurt am Main. These potential calculations do not even include the latest real wage increases.
Dr. Wulff Aengevelt, Managing Partner of Aengevelt Immobilien: “The mood in the real estate industry reflects the overall economic situation. For the residential, retail and logistics asset classes, real purchasing power is one of the most important macroeconomic valuation indicators. The real wage increases of the last two years, which have once again gained momentum in recent quarters, are early indicators for subsequent revivals in demand for space, rents and transaction volumes, which are typical of the segment, staggered in time and space for the real estate markets.”
