BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q3 2026
At the end of the third quarter, the Düsseldorf investment market recorded a transaction volume of €963 million. This means that the state capital not only exceeded the previous year’s figure by around a quarter, but also recorded by far the highest figure since the interest rate turnaround in 2022. These are the findings of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“The strong interim results are primarily attributable to the second quarter, during which several large-scale sales – particularly in the office segment – were reflected in the results. Of particular note here is the ‘Dreischeibenhaus’, which was sold to a consortium of institutional investors for more than €200 million. In the third quarter, however, market momentum lost some of its vigour. Capital market interest rates, which had risen significantly in recent months, have slowed transaction activity nationwide. Against this backdrop, the investment volume in Düsseldorf also declined to €214 million in the third quarter, with the largest recorded transaction being the sale of the Carsch-Haus for less than €50 million,” explains Philip Bellenbaum, Head of the Düsseldorf branch of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
The trend in net prime yields also reflects the recent rise in interest rates. As a result, they are 10 basis points higher across all asset classes compared with the previous quarter. The current rates are therefore 4.75 per cent for offices, 4.70 per cent for logistics properties and 4.05 per cent for retail properties in prime locations.
Office property is by far the asset class with the highest turnover
The breakdown of investment volume by asset class is currently dominated by office property, accounting for around 46 per cent or €447 million. In addition to the major transaction involving the Dreischeibenhaus mentioned above, several transactions in the mid-range segment of around €40 to €60 million are also a key factor in this. Examples include the BlueDuo, acquired by Indigo Invest in the Kennedydamm submarket, and the directly adjacent Gridd office complex.
Retail property also accounts for a significant share of turnover (22 per cent). At around €212 million, this asset class recorded an above-average result, even when compared over a 10-year period (+24 per cent). In addition to the Carsch-Haus, a whole series of high-street transactions in particular contributed to the strong result. The distribution of investment volume across the individual location categories is consistent with this trend. Currently, almost half of the total deal volume is accounted for by city centre locations.
Meanwhile, in terms of volume by size category, transactions in the three-digit million range account for 43 per cent of the total. In addition to the ‘Dreischeibenhaus’, the sale of the ‘The Tube’ distribution centre on the former Vallourec site, as part of a portfolio transaction, was another deal in this category.
Outlook
“The Düsseldorf investment market has recorded very solid results up to the end of the third quarter. Nevertheless, recent months have shown that the rise in capital market interest rates has the potential to dampen transaction momentum. At present, there are many indications that interest rates will remain elevated in the longer term, meaning that any noticeable relief on the financing front is unlikely in the short term. For the market’s future development, it will therefore once again be crucial how quickly buyers and sellers can reach agreement on pricing,” said Philip Bellenbaum.
On the other hand, the economic forecasts – which have been revised significantly upwards – are providing a positive boost, sending an encouraging signal particularly for the end-user markets. These are already showing signs of robustness in Düsseldorf: current office space take-up has risen significantly compared with the previous year, whilst the logistics market is even recording above-average results when viewed over the long term. The prospect of rising demand for space is also likely to bolster investors’ confidence in the earnings outlook.
Despite the challenging financing conditions, it is therefore reasonable to assume that the Düsseldorf investment market will record its best transaction results since 2022 by the end of the year. A further slight rise in net prime yields in the fourth quarter cannot be ruled out.
Link to the market report: https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/marktberichte/investmentmarkt/duesseldorf-report
