BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q4 2025
In 2025, €1.9 billion was invested in Hamburg’s market for commercial real estate. This means that the Hanseatic city’s result is around 17% below the previous year’s result (€2.3 billion), but ranks third among the A-cities behind Berlin and Munich. Similar to the other top locations, the consolidation phase in Hamburg is already relatively advanced. However, the noticeable improvement in investor sentiment last year has not yet been reflected in a significant increase in investment volume. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
For a market recovery, which is also visible in an increase in investment volume, Hamburg has so far lacked a higher frequency of large-volume transactions completed. Last year, three major deals worth €100 million were registered: a nursing home portfolio in the mid three-digit million range (Q1), the Atlantic Haus, an office property in the lower three-digit million range (Q3) supported by BNP Paribas Real Estate, and the Holsten site, a development site (Q4).
For a market recovery, which is also visible in an increase in investment volume, Hamburg has so far lacked a higher frequency of large-volume transactions completed. Last year, three major deals worth €100 million were registered: A nursing home portfolio in the mid three-digit million range (Q1), the Atlantic Haus, an office property in the lower three-digit million range (Q3) supported by BNP Paribas Real Estate, and the Holsten site, a development site (Q4).
“While the yield level of office properties has stabilized at 4.25%, the yields of commercial buildings in prime locations have risen by 10 basis points to 3.85%. A slightly larger yield increase of 25 basis points was achieved by warehouse and logistics space, which now yields 4.50%,” explains Heiko Fischer, Managing Director and Hamburg Branch Manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Office asset class with 38% market share
The distribution of take-up by sector is led by office properties, with a market share of 38% up on the previous year. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of large-volume deals in the Office asset class in Hamburg, which explains the below-average volume in absolute terms (€720 million vs. Ø 10 years: €2.1 billion). At around €620 million, the other collective category also makes a significant contribution, which is also in the range of the long-term average in absolute terms. This is where development plots and mixed-used properties can currently be found in particular.
With a market share of 31%, the central locations of the city are less involved in investment turnover than the long-term average (Ø 10 years: 40%). The reason for this is the lack of availability of suitable products.
Although there is still a lack of larger deals in a long-term comparison that prevent a better result, an increase compared to the previous year can be registered for the segment above the €100 million mark. Around €630 million was recorded in this segment. At the same time, the average deal size has risen to around €28 million.
Prospects
In 2026, complex macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions are likely to continue to shape the market environment. However, the economic stimulus package adopted by the federal government is likely to provide positive economic impetus in the second half of the year, from which Hamburg in particular should benefit with its comparatively broad-based and stable user markets, moderate vacancies and a decreasing product pipeline.
“In the office asset class, there are already signs of an increase in transaction volume. On the one hand, some large transactions have been postponed to 2026, and on the other hand, others are in the marketing or preparation stage. In addition, as a consequence of high construction costs and a significant excess demand in the premium segment, there are signs of a significant increase in the rent level in the top locations. Large-volume space searches in the premium segment can already only be presented in project developments, and here the rent level will consolidate beyond the €40/m² mark,” says Heiko Fischer.
From today’s perspective, it is most likely that the positive influencing parameters will overshadow the negative ones and that the already improved investor sentiment will materialize in an increasing transaction dynamic. The market recovery is likely to gradually gain in breadth and momentum, with transaction volumes expected to rise above the €2 billion mark by the end of 2026 with yields remaining stable.
