BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q1 2026
Although the Hamburg office market was unable to report an increase in take-up at the start of 2026, it is posting an overall solid initial interim balance in the wake of the continuing challenging conditions: At around 91,000 m², the result fell by 18% compared to Q1 2025, but a constant development can be observed compared to the two previous quarters (around 93,000 m² in Q3 and Q4 2025 each). This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
However, the fact that the average quarterly balance between 2017 and 2026 of just over 110,000 m² is currently not achievable is due less to the general demand for space than to the still sobering economic outlook. In addition, the changed demand structure in favour of smaller space in top micro-locations also makes a decisive contribution to lower, but often higher-quality take-up. Accordingly, the volume of modern leases even reached the long-term average at the beginning of the year, while it fell by 30% outside the highest furnishing categories.
This market observation is also reflected in the distribution of take-up among the sub-markets, with the City (24,000 m²), City South (18,000 m²) and HafenCity (14,500 m²) being the office market zones with the highest take-up. “Overall, around three quarters of total sales were accounted for by the city and city peripheral zones. Against the backdrop of high demand for premium space and locations as well as offices for first-time occupancy, the prime rent has climbed to €39/m² and thus moved further close to the €40/m² mark,” says Heiko Fischer, Managing Director and Hamburg Branch Manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Broad user structure, transport before ICT sector
When looking at the distribution of sectors, the fact that only one quarter is included in the evaluation results in an overall differentiated picture. The two collection categories (other services and others) with a combined turnover share of 38% underline that a very diverse range of industries is actively involved in market developments.
In terms of the individual categories, the categories of transport and traffic (just under 22% of the share) and ICT technologies (almost 18% of the share) have so far stood out, which have benefited from larger deals, among other things. The transport industry is responsible for the largest deal of the first three months with the construction of the new German headquarters for the leading international shipping company MSC (13,000 m²). Two major deals were also generated by the ICT sector, with the companies InnoGames in City Süd (8,600 m²) and Plancraft in the St. Pauli district (3,300 m²) being among the notable contracts.
The vacancy volume in the market area has risen again slightly: at the end of March, around 942,000 m² of office space was vacant, which corresponds to a marginal increase of 2% since the end of 2025. Almost 28% of this space meets modern furnishing criteria. The vacancy rate is 6.4%, while in the city centre it remains within the fluctuation reserve at 5.3%. Spaces for new construction are still in short supply: in total, only 18,500 m² are available at short notice in the top locations.
Prospects
Even though Hamburg’s office market did not get off to a brilliant start to the year, the Hanseatic city was able to record a satisfactory first quarter result overall in view of the geopolitical and economic factors. The general market trend that premium space in prime locations is increasingly dominating the market has once again been reflected in the distribution of take-up between the sub-markets and furnishing standards.
“However, the great importance of location preferences within the market area is also evident on the supply side: around 191,000 m² or almost 78% of the construction volume is accounted for by the highly sought-after 1-series locations. Especially against the background that in many project developments there is still larger contiguous space available and the pipeline of applications in the premium segment is filled, the momentum is likely to pick up noticeably again in the course of the year,” predicts Heiko Fischer.
The high pressure on the top spaces, especially in the first-occupancy segment in the city centre and HafenCity, is also leaving its mark on the development of rents. Accordingly, prime rents, which had already been dynamic in the course of 2025 (+6%), rose again in the first three months (+3%). Currently, 39 €/m² is to be set and for the coming quarters it cannot be ruled out that the 40 €/m² mark could be reached or even exceeded.
