BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes Grocery Investment Report
The investment volume for specialist stores increased by around 53% to €3.1 billion in 2025, which means that they are responsible for a good 48% of nationwide retail investments (compared to 32% market share in 2024). This is the result of the Grocery Investment Market Report, which BNP Paribas Real Estate has now republished.
“Retail parks and local shopping centres once again made a significant contribution to the good result, contributing around €1 billion (a good 33% proportionately) to market activity for the second year in a row, including the Three Lions Portfolio supported by BNP Paribas Real Estate. The market momentum for supermarkets and discounters accelerated significantly with +32% and an investment volume of €1.1 billion. Supported by the Porta takeover by XXXLutz, the non-food retail sector achieved one of the best results ever recorded and contributed €900 million to the result,” explains Christoph Scharf, Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH and Head of Retail Services.
While the biggest revenue drivers such as the Porta takeover and the purchase of 22 local supply properties by Habona Invest were at the beginning of the year, the highest number of deals was registered in the fourth quarter, which underlines the continued high level of investor interest in this division.
Core objects on the upswing, Core+ at a consistently good level
The demand for well-functioning food stores remains high, as they guarantee cyclical sales in an environment characterized by uncertainty. As a result, the investment volume increased by 10% to €2.1 billion in 2025. The core segment in particular grew significantly, with portfolios with well-functioning retail parks in established local supply locations contributing to this. With a 49% increase in turnover, core investments came to € 970 million, their best result since 2022.Core+ properties also remain in the focus of investors: With also over € 900 million and a 44% share of sales, they form the second important pillar in the market. Value-add products currently play a subordinate role due to the lack of larger portfolios.
The purchase price factors are stable in all risk classes, both in the retail park and in the supermarket/discounter segment. A continuous sideways movement is likely in 2026.
Large portfolios in Q1, many medium-sized packages over the course of the year
Food-anchored portfolios are and will remain the most important investment product within the retail portfolio segment. Overall, food retail portfolios (food retail portfolios) accounted for around €1.1 billion in transaction volume for the year as a whole, accounting for around 55% of the total volume of parcel sales in the retail segment; a considerable value in view of the Porta takeover in the non-food sector. While the number of food retail portfolio deals rose slightly from 22 to 24, the average deal size remained unchanged at a relatively low €45 million in a long-term comparison.
Apart from the individual large-volume portfolios in the three-digit million range, such as the Penka portfolio acquired by Habona, the majority of market activity was attributable to smaller and medium-sized portfolio transactions between € 20 million and € 70 million. The fact that a larger number of deals in excess of €100 million were not concluded in 2025 is less a question of investor interest than of a lack of supply.
Investment managers clearly dominate the market
Institutional investors continue to be by far the most active players in the market. In 2025, they contributed well over 50% of the investment volume and placed it extensively in special funds (18% market share) and closed-end funds (11%). The largest transactions in the market were then also made for institutional investment vehicles, including the Penka portfolio acquired by Habona and the Three Lions portfolio. But other prominent acquisitions such as the ShoreLine and Four Green portfolios also fall into this category.
With a share of 9%, operators continue to be strongly active on the buyer side. On the seller side, in addition to investment/asset managers (28% market share), project developers are also more prominently represented in the seller ranking with a share of just over 15%. Operators are the third largest seller group with a 12% market share.
Great potential for expansion in the food segment – the hidden reserve in every portfolio
The food retail sector has developed very dynamically in recent years. Sales have been rising for years, most recently in 2025 with +1.1% in real terms compared to the previous year. However, not only sales have increased, but also the range of goods (for example, more fresh and organic goods as well as drugstore items). In addition, greater emphasis is placed on product presentation and quality of stay, which leads to an increasing demand for sales space.
BNP Paribas Real Estate has prepared an analysis based on almost 1,200 stores nationwide to determine possible additional space requirements. The store formats of supermarkets and hypermarkets, hypermarkets and food retail discounters were considered. For each format, the current average lettable space was compared with the space usage requirements, which are clearly defined in the expansion profiles of the leading food retailers.
The analysis results at a glance: In the case of hypermarkets and hypermarkets, current rental space and space requirements usually coincide. Accordingly, there is no major need for action here. In the case of supermarkets and food retail discounters, the current rental space is on average much smaller than the area size defined by retailers. In the supermarket format, there is an average shortage of around 450 m² per asset, while in the case of food retail discounters, the figure is 250 m² per property. In total, there is an imputed expansion potential of 4.8 million m² in the supermarket segment and 4 million m² in the case of food retail discounters. This would theoretically correspond to 2,100 and 2,700 new construction stores respectively.
Regardless of the contract term, there is therefore considerable “silent” upside potential in every existing portfolio. In addition, expansions usually result in significant rent increases and long contract terms (usually 15 years).
Prospects
“With a market share of 48% of the total retail investment volume, the retail park division has once again confirmed its importance and strong investor interest in 2025. The so-called grocery segment in particular developed dynamically, with +10% to €2.1 billion. However, in 2025, the lack of supply in the large-volume portfolio segment prevented a higher total volume and kept the average volume of food retail portfolios at a low € 45 million. The grocery investment market is heading for a strong year in 2026, as investor demand is high and continues to rise, especially on the part of pan-European funds. In an environment characterized by uncertainty, they appreciate the cyclical sales in the food retail segment. The market should also get additional tailwind from the supply side. In the highly sought-after core segment in particular, there are signs of an expansion of offerings, even in large portfolios. In general, more product should come onto the market across all risk classes and quality segments, while little change is expected in purchase prices,” says Christoph Scharf, summarizing the outlook.
