BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes office market figures for the 4th quarter of 2025
The Cologne office market recorded take-up of 250,000 m² in 2025. This means that the annual result is around 15% below the long-term average. However, compared to the other top locations, which missed their result by a more significant margin on average, this result can be considered solid. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate. “On a positive note, the previous year’s result was exceeded by 10% and the trend has been upward again since the low in 2023. Take-up is thus back on track for the long-term average,” explains David Braun, Cologne branch manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. In the course of the year, an upward trend is also emerging; the fourth quarter in particular has a positive impact of 73,000 m². Public administration in particular is making a significant contribution to this with the two largest deals in the final quarter: BIMA is expanding with the Bundeswehr by 9,100 m² in Holweide in the Mülheim office market zone, and the BLB NRW public prosecutor’s office signed a lease agreement for 8,700 m² in Zollstock in the Bayenthal/Marienburg office market zone. The prime rent remains stable at €33.50/m² over the course of the year, which can be explained in particular by a larger supply of modern space compared to other top locations. The traditionally more volatile average rent rose slightly by €0.10/m² to €19.00/m².
Public administration accounts for almost a third of total take-up, and vacancies continue to rise.
The ranking of take-up by sector is clearly led by public administration and other services, with market shares of just under 30% and 22% respectively. In absolute terms, both sectors also achieve above-average take-up: public administration contributes 74,500 m², and other services contribute 55,000 m² to total take-up. Four of the five largest lease agreements made a significant contribution to the strong result of the public administration. In a long-term comparison, letting activity was less strongly influenced by larger leases. Small and medium-sized deals of up to 5,000 m² clearly shaped the market with a market share of a good 75%. The vacancy volume in the overall market increased significantly by 27% year-on-year to 497,000 m². However, this increase is mainly due to secondary locations, while high-quality space in central locations remains in demand. The vacancy rate thus rises to 6.3%. Currently, 152,000 m² of space is under construction, of which 62,000 m² is still available for rent on the market.
Prospects
“The Cologne office market can look back on a solid, albeit slightly below-average year. Especially compared to the other top locations, the recovery course is becoming more visible in Cologne, which gives hope for a further increase in take-up in 2026,” says Lars Faßbender, Cologne branch manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. 2026 is also likely to be characterized by a large number of influencing macro and geopolitical factors. However, boosted by the federal government’s spending package, the economic upswing should slowly take shape. The Cologne office market is likely to benefit from this, although higher take-up will continue to be largely determined by whether the major searches currently on the market are completed. In view of the recent increase in user requirements in the context of hybrid working environments, coupled with the desire for increased flexibility, project developments are likely to continue to pick up. However, due to the associated increased time between the application for space and the completion of the space, the expected economic tailwind is likely to have a slower positive impact on take-up than usual. Overall, however, the economic recovery should positively overshadow the risks, especially with regard to geopolitical and customs capers in 2026. This means that a further increase in take-up towards the 300,000 m² mark seems quite realistic in the range of the long-term average by the end of the year.
