BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q3 2026
Following the first three quarters of 2026, the Leipzig investment market recorded a transaction volume of around €341 million, marking its best result in the past three years. Consequently, the weak result from the previous year was exceeded by roughly three times. However, it falls short of the long-term average by around 28 per cent. The strong start to the year was the main factor behind this solid overall performance. Not least due to the sale of the Höfe am Brühl shopping centre for a three-digit million sum, the transaction volume had already totalled €209 million in the first quarter. However, with the further escalation of the Iran conflict in the spring and the subsequent sharp rise in volatility on the capital markets, transaction momentum also slowed over the course of the year. Consequently, a volume of only around €65 million was recorded in each of the past two quarters. The number of transactions recorded also remains at a very low level, totalling just 16. These are the findings of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“Capital market interest rates, which have risen significantly over the course of the year, have led to a further selective adjustment in net prime yields. As a result, yields on commercial properties in prime locations and on logistics properties rose by 10 basis points each in the third quarter, to 5.10 per cent and 4.90 per cent respectively. Following a significant increase of 30 basis points to 5.60 per cent for prime office properties as early as the second quarter, prime yields in this segment are currently moving sideways,” explains Stefan Sachse, Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH and Head of the Leipzig branch.
The bulk of the volume is accounted for by retail properties
The breakdown of investment volume across the individual asset classes was dominated by the retail segment in the first three quarters. More than half (55 per cent) of the total volume was attributable to this asset class. This is largely attributable to the sale of the Höfe am Brühl. In addition, the retail segment recorded a further transaction in the double-digit millions following the sale of a large commercial property in the city centre. Significant shares of turnover were also attributable to the hotel sector (15 per cent on a pro rata basis) and the ‘Other’ category (14 per cent), which primarily comprised land and care homes. Office properties currently play only a minor role in the Leipzig market. In the current year, no transaction exceeding the €10 million mark has yet been attributed to this asset class.
Another striking feature is the high presence of foreign investors, who accounted for around 74 per cent of the total transaction volume in the first three quarters. Both in percentage terms and in absolute figures (just over €250 million), this represents an above-average result by long-term standards. A key factor here is the aforementioned large-scale shopping centre transaction, in which Investika, a foreign buyer, was the successful bidder. Also noteworthy is the increase in the proportion of portfolio transactions compared with the previous year. Around a quarter of the current volume relates to properties in Leipzig that form part of nationwide package sales in the logistics, healthcare and hotel sectors.
Outlook
Despite the solid annual results to date, the situation on the Leipzig investment market remains challenging. The low number of transactions highlights the fact that a sustained, broad-based recovery in market activity is still some way off. Added to this are the rise in capital market interest rates, which are weighing on financing conditions.
On the other hand, positive impetus could come from the growth forecasts for the German economy, which have recently been revised significantly upwards, as well as from the improved sentiment indicators. In particular, the upturn in the ifo Business Climate Index offers hope for a gradual improvement in the economic environment. Should this trend continue, it is likely to benefit Leipzig’s property markets, which have so far been subdued, in the long term. An accompanying upturn in demand for space could, in turn, bolster investors’ confidence in future earnings prospects.
“Transaction activity is nevertheless expected to remain moderate in the final quarter. A few larger deals could still increase the investment volume significantly, but a broad-based market recovery seems unlikely in the short term. Overall, however, the annual result looks set to move back towards the €500 million mark. As regards net prime yields, further slight increases in individual market segments cannot be ruled out given the current capital market environment,” said Hannes Baderschneider, Head of the Leipzig branch of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Link to the market report: Leipzig Property Investment Market Q3 2026 | BNP Paribas Real Estate
