With an investment volume of just under €1.2 billion, the logistics investment market is off to a moderate start in 2026. The result is around 11% below the previous year’s volume and, at -40%, deviates noticeably from the ten-year average. Overall, however, more transactions were registered than in the previous year. Market activity was particularly lively, with investments of up to €25 million, so that the average volume per deal fell to a low level of €19 million (Q1 2025: €22 million). It is also noteworthy that, in contrast to the 1st quarter of the previous year, a deal in the three-digit million range has already been recorded with the sale of the Mercedes Benz logistics center in Bischweier. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“Individual deals achieve a comparable investment volume as in the previous year and once again crack the billion mark. This means that their result, which deviates by just under 7% from the ten-year average, can be seen as very positive, especially against the backdrop of the current market environment,” explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. Investments through portfolio sales, on the other hand, have fallen (-31% compared to Q1 2025) and contribute only 12% to the overall result.
Net prime yields remained constant in the 1st quarter after rising by 25 basis points over the course of 2025 to 4.50% in the A locations and 4.70% in Leipzig.
Uniform distribution by size class
In the major logistics markets of Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig, Munich and Stuttgart, only around €184 million has been invested in logistics properties so far (-37% compared to Q1 2025), which is a low figure even in a long-term comparison. Cologne and Berlin each achieve a volume of around €50 million, while the other markets remain significantly lower. This interim result is mainly due to an insufficient supply of corresponding purchase opportunities in the top markets, which are generally still in high demand.
The distribution of investments by size class shows a fairly homogeneous picture, with a range between a good 10% market share for the smallest segment up to €10 million and 27% for sales between €25 million and €50 million. The high share of rather smaller transactions of up to € 50 million in market activity (64%) is striking. The larger deals that generate volume, on the other hand, are only concluded selectively in the current market environment.
In terms of the origin of capital, foreign buyers increase to a share of 67% and invest a slightly higher volume than in the same period last year. Domestic investors, on the other hand, were still somewhat more cautious (-29%) and thus deviated much more from their ten-year average (-54%) than foreign investors (-29%).
Prospects
As in the previous year, the logistics investment market showed high momentum in the 1st quarter of 2026 in terms of individual deals and rather smaller sales volumes. However, deals with medium and high investment volumes are crucial for a noticeable increase in overall earnings.
It is currently difficult to predict the further development of the market, as the general conditions have become noticeably worse again with the outbreak of the Iran war. The longer the military conflicts in the Middle East continue, the greater the impact on energy prices and the global economy. In addition to other geopolitical conflicts, erratic US policy also remains a major factor of uncertainty.
“Positive signals, on the other hand, come from the overall robust user market and the impetus expected in the course of the year from the special funds for infrastructure and environmental measures as well as from the financial leeway for defence measures. If the Iran war ends soon, economic development in Germany is expected to brighten up in the course of the year. In addition, the logistics investment market should benefit from the fundamentally growing interest in the asset class as well as the high strategic importance of functioning supply chains,” says Christopher Raabe.
