BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q3 2026
In the Berlin warehouse and logistics market, a total of 298,000 m² of space was let in the first three quarters of the year. The weak economic climate and geopolitical uncertainties are also having an impact on the capital region. This figure is around 7 per cent below the previous year’s figure and approximately 18 per cent below the average for the past ten years. Nevertheless, Berlin ranks second in the city rankings, behind Frankfurt (320,000 m²) and ahead of Hamburg (283,000 m²). These are the findings of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“Potential users remain cautious and, in many cases, are waiting to see how the economic situation develops. Consequently, existing premises are being used for longer rather than leasing additional space. At the same time, the trend of increased demand from Asian companies is continuing. This development, which has already taken hold in North Rhine-Westphalia, has also been increasingly evident in the capital region since the start of the year. Two of the largest lease agreements of the current year have been signed by the Asian e-commerce company JD Logistics: “Following the lease of around 39,000 m² in Ludwigsfelde in the first quarter, the company secured a further 25,000 m² of logistics space in the third quarter, located right in the heart of Berlin,” explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
As the supply of available space is currently increasing, particularly due to newly completed properties that have not yet been let, rents have remained stable since the start of the year. The prime rent remains unchanged at €8.30 per square metre, whilst the average rent stands at €7.30 per square metre.
Logistics firms top the rankings thanks to major deals
Logistics service providers have so far contributed just under 125,000 m² to the total take-up. This represents the third-highest figure of the past decade and exceeds the 10-year average by a good 21 per cent. Not only are they responsible for two of the three largest deals so far this year, but they have also secured a large number of smaller contracts. Industrial companies are performing in line with their long-term average, with a market share of around 23 per cent. A further major deal was also recorded in Berlin with the letting of over 27,000 m² by ASML, a Dutch company in the semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, retail companies – traditionally a strong sector – are performing below average, though they still account for a double-digit share of the market at just over 19 per cent. This year, they have primarily been involved in small and medium-sized contracts.
A breakdown by size category highlights the comparatively broad base of demand underpinning the current results. This applies in particular to smaller units: more than 119,000 m² was accounted for by leases of up to 5,000 m². At the same time, the overall result continues to be significantly influenced by deals exceeding 20,000 m². In the size segment between 12,000 and 20,000 m², however, no lettings have been recorded to date.
Outlook
Despite the challenging economic and geopolitical conditions, the Berlin logistics market has performed solidly overall in the first three quarters of 2026. The increase in the number of lease agreements over the course of the year, together with several large-scale let enquiries that are nearing completion, suggest a pick-up in the final quarter. Consequently, a take-up of more than 400,000 m² by the end of the year appears entirely realistic, provided that the contracts currently under negotiation can be finalised.
Demand for logistics space is expected to remain solid in the coming months. At the same time, there are signs of a slight improvement in the economic climate. Leading economic institutes have recently raised their forecasts for GDP growth significantly. Furthermore, leading indicators such as the ifo Business Climate Index are once again sending positive signals, which could provide fresh impetus to market dynamics. The growing presence of Asian e-commerce companies in the capital region is also likely to provide further support for demand.
“On the supply side, there is sufficient space available, particularly in outlying areas, due to speculative new-build developments. Against this backdrop, rents are expected to remain stable for the rest of the year,” said Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Link to the market report: https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/marktberichte/logistikmarkt/berlin-report
