With 497.5 million guest nights, German accommodation providers once again reached a record high in 2025. However, full rooms alone do not guarantee a return on investment: rising staff, energy and financing costs are compounded by price-sensitive guests and higher demands from investors. The hotel property market is not returning to pre-2020 conditions – and it is precisely for this reason that it is opening up new opportunities for economically viable concepts. This is demonstrated by the fourth edition of the mrp hotels Expert Paper ‘Booking the Future’.
In 18 articles, including insights from 14 external industry experts, this annual specialist publication examines the entire spectrum of hotel property: from market developments and location quality, through investment, financing and operating agreements, to digitalisation and operational performance. To mark the publication, Martin Schaffer, Managing Partner at mrp hotels, and Hannah Struck, Senior Asset Manager & Consultant at mrp hotels, presented the key findings of the Expert Paper alongside Veronica Eckhoff, Vice President at Aareal Bank, and Adrian Lindner, CEO of the Lindner Hotel Group.
“The key challenge increasingly lies in achieving sufficient profitability from stable, but not rapidly growing, demand and turning this into financially viable, valuable and sustainable hotel properties,” explains Martin Schaffer, Managing Partner at mrp hotels. “Today, the quality of growth, operator profitability and long-term viability are crucial.”
Robust demand, selective investments: not every market benefits
Hotels remain a comparatively resilient property asset class. The ongoing desire to travel and demographic trends are underpinning demand. At the same time, the DACH market is characterised by price pressure, short booking windows and a slowed-down pipeline of new builds. In Germany, the volume of hotel transactions rose by 40 per cent to 1.84 billion euros in 2025; across Europe, however, capital is increasingly shifting towards regions with strong tourism sectors and high-quality hotel products. Investors are becoming increasingly selective in their assessment of locations, operators and earnings prospects.
The competitiveness of entire destinations also depends on good international flight connections, the availability of skilled labour, efficient infrastructure and reliable framework conditions. Climate protection and growth must be considered more closely in tandem. Reducing red tape, more flexible working time arrangements and better connectivity are regarded as key drivers for the tourism industry.
Financing: Operating cash flow is the deciding factor
As loans taken out during the low-interest-rate period are refinanced, the requirements regarding the viability of hotel projects are increasing. Alongside banks, private credit funds are gaining in importance; according to the Expert Paper, they already account for around 20 per cent of new hotel financing. Sustainability, data quality, investment requirements and the operator’s creditworthiness are being factored more heavily into the assessment. Supplementary alternative financing can facilitate, in particular, refurbishments, energy-efficiency upgrades and extensions. A transparent cash flow that remains robust even under conservative assumptions remains crucial.
“Financing has not necessarily become more difficult, but it has become significantly more comprehensive and holistic,” says Veronica Eckhoff, Vice President at Aareal Bank. “So we are not just financing a property, but the combination of the market, the operator, the contractual structure and the sponsor.”
Franchise and operator agreements: the added value must be measurable
The choice of operator and brand becomes a key factor in determining returns. A model calculation by mrp hotels for a city centre hotel with 118 rooms puts the total franchise, system, sales and loyalty costs at around 9 to 11 per cent of turnover. To offset these costs under the assumed conditions, RevPAR would need to rise by around 17 to 20 per cent – without generating any additional profit. At the same time, flexible lease models, a balanced distribution of risk and contractual provisions for exceptional market disruptions are becoming increasingly important.
“A strong brand can be a major advantage, but it is definitely no guarantee of commercial success,” says Hannah Struck, Senior Asset Manager & Consultant at mrp hotels. “It is therefore crucial to determine whether a brand actually generates additional demand or merely shifts existing bookings to other distribution channels.”
Growth with a distinct identity: opportunities within the existing portfolio rather than expansion at any cost
Practical examples from the family-run hotel sector, brand development and investment illustrate how sustainable growth can be achieved. Clearly defined, replicable hotel products facilitate scaling, whilst distinctive brands and flexible operating agreements ensure expansion is economically viable. Regional character, authentic concepts and a cohesive guest experience create differentiation. Opportunities also exist in existing properties with solvable operational issues, a need for repositioning or unresolved succession situations – provided the location and economic fundamentals are sound.
The pressure to change is particularly high for family-run hotel businesses. “It is not the number of hotels that determines success, but sustainable profitability,” emphasises Adrian Lindner, CEO of the Lindner Hotel Group. “Tradition must not stand in the way of necessary changes.”
AI and Business Intelligence: higher revenue, more scope for hospitality
Artificial intelligence, automation and business intelligence are becoming tools for safeguarding margins. Their potential lies not only in faster processes and more accurate forecasts, but above all in the joint analysis of revenue management, sales and operating costs. The benchmark is increasingly the gross operating profit (GOP) rather than room revenue alone. As the Expert Paper also emphasises, technology should not replace personal hospitality. Authentic concepts, regional identity and human interaction remain key differentiating factors.
The future belongs to economically resilient hotel concepts
The findings of the mrp hotels Expert Paper highlight a fundamental shift in the factors driving success within the hotel industry. The future of hotel property depends less on portfolio size and growth rate than on the interplay of high-quality locations, sustainable cash flows, appropriate operational structures and measurable operational excellence. Martin Schaffer sums it up: “The future does not necessarily belong to those who develop or operate the most hotels, but to those who ensure their hotels remain profitable and retain their value in the long term.”
An overview of the authors and interviewees
External contributions and interviews (14): Moritz Kraemer (LBBW), Peter Gerber (Condor), Sven Liebert (Federal Association of the German Tourism Industry), Can Erdem (STR/CoStar), Hans Rusinek (labour researcher and author), Adrian Lindner (Lindner Hotel Group), Julian Mayer (Familux Resorts), Veronica Eckhoff (Aareal Bank), Daniel Horak (CONDA Capital), Tom Leahy (MSCI), Daniel Jelitzka (JP Immobiliengruppe), Torsten Vey (DSR Hotel Holding), Jan Schoch (Appenzeller Huus) and Gregor Famira (CMS).
Articles by mrp hotels (4): Hannah Struck, Martin Schaffer, Gianni Brugger and Gilbert-André Ghammachi.
Further information
Expert Paper Hotels 2026 “Booking the Future”:
https://mrp-hotels.com/mrp-hotels-expert-paper-hotels-2026-booking-the-future/
Recording of the presentation and discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7511374801949749248
