Alternative fuels are becoming central to the transition towards clean energy as governments, companies and end users seek lower-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels. Driven by their growing importance in the energy transition, global renewable refinery production capacity is forecast to rise from 11,716.0 million gallons per year (mmgy) in 2025 to 35,358.9 mmgy by 2030, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence report, “Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition”, defines alternative fuels as transport fuels that do not originate from crude oil. The report focuses on biofuels, including renewable fuels such as renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and e-fuels, which can reduce lifecycle emissions across road, aviation and maritime transport.
Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The transport sector remains particularly important for oil and gas companies because it accounted for 46 per cent of global demand for petroleum products in 2025, rising to 55 per cent when international bunker fuels are included. As road vehicles, aircraft and vessels cannot all transition away from liquid and gaseous fuels at the same pace, alternative fuels provide a practical way to reduce emissions whilst maintaining fuel reliability, range and operational flexibility.”
Biofuels offer the most immediate opportunity because they can be blended into existing fuel systems with minimal changes to infrastructure. Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), both produced using biomass in a renewable refinery, are at the forefront of near-term pathways where drop-in compatibility is key. In the longer term, low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and e-fuels are expected to support sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as maritime shipping and aviation.
The growth in global renewable refinery production capacity is expected to be driven by both active capacity additions and a growing pipeline of upcoming projects. Among the fuels produced in these refineries, renewable diesel is particularly important because it can serve as a drop-in alternative to diesel for road freight, rail and shipping. Its compatibility with existing diesel engines and fuel logistics makes it an attractive option for fleet operators seeking to reduce emissions without having to completely replace their existing fleet.
For oil and gas companies, the opportunities range from refinery conversions and fuel trading to the supply of hydrogen and ammonia, fuels enabled by CCUS, and low-carbon fuel infrastructure. Existing downstream assets can be adapted to process waste oils, fats, greases, vegetable oils and other biogenic feedstocks, whilst selected refineries can be converted into renewable diesel and SAF facilities.
Puranik concludes: “Alternative fuels require not only production assets but also resources for feedstock aggregation, certification, blending, logistics, offtake management and customer relationships. Companies with established trading arms and retail networks can build low-carbon fuel portfolios spanning sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia and, eventually, e-fuels. Competitive advantage is shifting from simple production capacity towards control of the entire commercial chain.”
