The consequences of the war in Iran are also increasingly becoming apparent on the German industrial and logistics market: Increased oil and diesel prices are increasing cost pressure on logistics users, changing the requirements for logistics real estate and leading to a reassessment of investment approaches. This is according to Savills' latest Market in Minutes: Industrial Property Market .
The Iran war and the resulting rise in oil prices are hitting the German economy as a whole hard – but the logistics industry particularly hard. Around three-quarters of freight transport depends directly or indirectly on the price of diesel. In addition, uncertainty about the further course of the conflict exacerbates the situation, as companies lack reliable planning bases. For German companies, there is another competitive disadvantage: While many EU governments have intervened in diesel pricing, they paid more than their European competitors in Germany in March and April.
The extent to which the diesel price increase affects freight forwarders depends largely on their risk hedging. So-called diesel floaters are often used, i.e. contractual price escalation clauses through which the increased fuel costs are passed on to customers. "In the short term, this stabilizes the industry, but as a result, the increased cost pressure could lead to a reduction in transport volumes. So far, however, this effect has not been observed," says Sebastian Lindner, Head of Industrial Agency Germany at Savills, adding: "The longer the phase of high diesel prices lasts, the sooner transport performance will decline. At the same time, we continue to observe several large-volume lettings nationwide, which underlines the robustness of the market."
Pressure for logistics users to adapt increases
As a result of these developments, logistics users are acting more cautiously: they are postponing expansion decisions and replanning investments. In the short term, this may dampen demand for space on the rental market. In the long term, according to Savills, a contrary trend could emerge: For strategic reasons, logistics and industrial companies could further increase their inventories and thus generate additional demand in the rental market.
At the same time, the requirement profile for logistics real estate is changing: The increasing use of battery-powered trucks is likely to further increase the importance of modern spaces with high energy availability, proximity to the charging grid, medium-voltage connection and photovoltaics.
Impact on the investment market
The fact that these developments are not without impact on the investment market is already evident in the market sentiment: "Some investors are hesitant and are currently reviewing their investment approaches in view of the changed cost environment. For example, long-term financing costs have risen slightly compared to 2025, raising expectations for the initial return. In addition, some market participants expect construction costs to rise as a result of the energy price shock and are therefore rethinking revitalization and conversion scenarios," concludes Karl Klaffke, Senior Consultant Research at Savills.
