Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian, Chair of Real Estate Finance, IREBS Institute for Real Estate Economics, University of Regensburg
“The ECB is right to leave key interest rates unchanged. It is still too early for a monetary policy adjustment, as the impact of the geopolitical situation, especially with regard to energy prices and the resulting inflation risk, cannot yet be assessed. We can assume that the ECB will monitor developments very closely and act in a data-dependent manner.
So far, the reactions to the Iran war on the financial markets have remained surprisingly moderate. For the real estate and construction industries, this means stability for the time being – albeit at a further elevated risk level. The capital markets expect one or two key interest rate hikes, but only later in the year. We are already seeing a moderate increase in long-term interest rates, for example in the ten-year swap. However, in a historical comparison, this is more gradual than erratic and does not signal an abrupt revaluation, but a gradual adjustment of interest rate expectations.”
