Statement Prof. Dr. Felix Schindler, Head of Research & Strategy, HIH Invest Real Estate:
“As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) is continuing on its chosen course and leaving key interest rates at the current level after the summer break – as it did in July. The ECB is currently in a fairly comfortable situation with little pressure to act. Inflation rates are trending sideways in the area of the target corridor. However, there are significant differences between the basket of goods components: While energy prices in the euro area continue to fall due to weaker demand and the weak US dollar, price increases in the food sector remain above average. Looking ahead, in addition to the ongoing uncertainties in the customs conflict and the impact on growth momentum, the ECB will closely monitor and analyse not only economic policy developments in France, but also in Japan and the United Kingdom, as well as the situation at the US Federal Reserve in the coming months.
With its decision, the ECB is keeping all options open to be able to react to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve in the further course of the year on the one hand and to the data situation and the economic policy framework on the other. A further key interest rate cut by the end of the year is still possible and the controversial discussions on this are likely to continue.
For the real estate and capital markets, the development at the long end of the yield curve in the coming months is likely to be much more interesting than the ECB’s decisions on key interest rates.”
