The logistics investment market recorded a transaction volume of €4.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025. Earnings at the end of the third quarter fell short of the long-term average (Ø 10 years: €5.2 billion) by just under 20%, but were only slightly below the level of the same period last year (-5%). This somewhat belies the fact that the market is much more lively compared to the previous year and especially to 2023. There has been a significant increase in the frequency of completed transactions, but this has not yet been reflected in a higher investment volume due to the lack of large-volume portfolio deals. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Both portfolio transactions with a market share of 29% (Ø 10 years: 43%) and major deals over €100 million with 21% (Ø 10 years: 44%) contribute below average to the logistics investment volume. “However, it is positive that three portfolio deals worth €100 million were registered in the third quarter,” says Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. Looking at the first three quarters, the individual deals segment posted a comparatively good result overall. With an investment turnover of just under €3 billion, this is slightly above the long-term average. The two previous year’s results (€2.2 billion and €2.3 billion, respectively) were significantly exceeded here. All A locations recorded a decompression of net prime yields by 15 basis points in the third quarter. For the A locations, 4.40% is now applied, while Leipzig yields 4.60%.
Foreign investors very present
The A locations contribute a total of around €940 million to the overall result, with record results of over €200 million in Düsseldorf and Stuttgart. However, the other top markets continue to trade below their respective long-term averages. What is striking about the distribution of the volume by size class is the very low share of major deals over €100 million (21% (Ø 10 years: 44%). So far, only five deals have been registered here (three of them in Q3). However, the segment of medium-sized deals (€25 million and €50 million) is buoyant with a market share of 19% (Ø 10 years: 14%). At a good €800 million, an above-average result was also recorded in absolute terms compared to the long-term average. Foreign investors are responsible for 69% of the volume. This proportion is above the average of the last ten years, which is 56%.
Prospects
The logistics investment market was robust overall in the current market environment. Although the investment volume has not yet reached the usual levels, the increased number of registered transactions signals a moderate market recovery. Currently, a variety of factors determine investor and user sentiment. In addition to pronounced negative trends, there are also positive trends. A significant factor of uncertainty for the global economy and the German economy continues to be the changeable trade policy of the USA. The consequences and potential countermeasures are difficult to assess, and the frequently changing framework conditions lead to a noticeable reluctance to invest in companies. Geopolitical imponderables continue to be particularly pronounced at the moment. The further escalation of military conflicts has the potential to noticeably dampen the mood for investment and the economy. On the other hand, however, there is the German Government’s resolute spending policy of providing investment incentives and positive impetus for the German economy with the considerable special funds. Currently, impulses are coming from the user market, primarily from the Armaments/Defense segment, which is already being expressed in a small special economic situation. The logistics market in particular should benefit from this.
“Against this backdrop, investment activity is likely to accelerate as early as the final quarter. Especially if the emerging trend of an increasing number of large-volume transactions completed continues, an investment volume in the range of the previous year, where it was €6.9 billion, or slightly higher at the end of the year, appears to be the most likely scenario,” says Christopher Raabe.
Link to the market report:
https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/marktberichte/logistik-investmentmarkt/deutschland-at-a-glance
