Experts discuss the development of the real estate market in 2026
Geopolitical tensions, technological developments and regulatory requirements have changed the rules of the game in real estate markets. The resilience of actors and their strategies is more important than ever in the face of structural and political changes. Investors place the highest priority on the resilience of their portfolios in order to minimize risks. The economy and financial markets must prove that they can absorb shock waves.
How the real estate markets will continue in the coming year under these circumstances was discussed by Piotr Bienkowski, Managing Director of PTXRE, Sebastiano Ferrante, Head of European Real Estate at PGIM, Victor Stoltenburg, Managing Director at Deka Immobilien and Andreas Trumpp, Head of Market Intelligence & Foresight at PTXRE, at a PTXRE webinar accompanied by RUECKERCONSULT.
Debt capital gap inhibits investment
The continuing debt gap will have a significant impact on refinancing in 2026, which will have a dampening effect on investment markets. According to the PTXRE analysis, the (re)financing gap in the German real estate market will increase to around 8.5 billion euros in 2026. Office properties are particularly affected, accounting for around 5.1 billion euros, or almost 60 percent of the total volume. Nevertheless, PTXRE expects a slight increase in transaction volume in this country. “There can be no talk of a sharp increase, but a reallocation within the portfolios is likely,” says Andreas Trumpp. Real estate worth around 40 billion euros could be traded in 2026 – slightly more than in 2025.
Financing processes that are too long
The question of financing will continue to occupy the industry intensively in 2026, Sebastiano Ferrante is convinced. He sees the growing importance of alternative financiers such as private credit funds. Europe and Germany in particular have a lot of catching up to do in view of the limited lending by traditional banks. Piotr Bienkowski complained that financing processes take at least twice as long today as they used to. “Many market participants are facing the challenge of increasingly demanding internal banking processes. The crisis is more risk than opportunity – despite opening up to international sources of capital,” said the PTXRE boss. From Deka Immobilien’s point of view, the situation is much more relaxed than often perceived. As a core investor with a low debt capital, Deka continues to benefit from stable banking relationships, especially with the Landesbanken, explained Deka Managing Director Victor Stoltenburg: “Financing is the lesser problem. The cautious market sentiment among core investors is the bigger challenge.”
Germany is no longer a safe haven
All panelists diagnosed investment reluctance on the part of institutional investors due to high real estate quotas, alternatives such as private credit and a negative image of Germany. “We are no longer a safe haven for foreign investors,” says Piotr Bienkowski. “Despite its proximity to Ukraine, Poland is sometimes considered safer than Germany as an investment location.” For Sebastiano Ferrante, Germany has a fundamental image problem. “Foreign investors don’t know who or what Germany wants to be – an export nation, an industrial nation? As long as it is not clear where we are heading, investors will hold back.” In principle, it is important to distinguish between the risk classes. Transactions are already taking place again in the super core sector – especially in the residential, office and logistics segments. “If the product is clearly core, the market is there,” says Bienkowski. “In the core plus, value add and so on segments, it is not yet the case. The large capital collectors are already interested in the German market, but they do not yet consider the pricing to be appropriate.”
Difficult: Office properties in secondary locations
Office properties in prime locations continue to function – with new lettings at rising prices. Piotr Bienkowski: “In Frankfurt, we will significantly exceed the 60 euro per square metre mark this year.” However, project developments are currently hardly calculable, which strategically enhances existing properties, according to the majority opinion. The pressure on secondary sites remains high.
Housing remains a scarce commodity
The housing market will continue to be characterized by shortages in 2026. High rents and the very low supply in some places create opportunities in locations with high demand. In this respect, residential real estate offers a lot of potential. However, the rule of three of construction costs, land prices and rents does not yet add up, according to the panelists. Solutions lie in more efficient floor plans, standardised and modular construction and lower standards, without sacrificing ESG.
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI is not just hype, but is here to stay. For the panelists, AI has launched a development that will speed up processes and make them more efficient, and in some cases replace staff to close demographic gaps. “Next year will decide which solutions and products will be marketable,” says Andreas Trumpp. Piotr Bienkowski adds: “In the next one to two years, the wheat will be separated from the chaff.” Then we will see what the AI can really do.
What do the experts advise for 2026?
Andreas Trumpp recommends focusing on active asset management – not every property is the same, and the opportunities lie in differentiation. Sebastiano Ferrante advocates facing up to the transformation: “Embrace the change – new forms of use, asset classes and investment fields are emerging right now.” Victor Stoltenburg sees 2026 as a year of careful analysis: “Take an even closer look, because value growth is no longer automatic.” Piotr Bienkowski emphasizes the reality check: “Those who have good real estate can rely on rent growth – everyone else has to reposition themselves strategically. Postponing does not help.”
Survey: How does the trade audience assess the market situation in 2026?
At the beginning of the discussion, RUECKERCONSULT asked the webinar participants which influencing factor they think will have the strongest influence on developments in the real estate market in 2026. The answers were quite clear: 49 percent of those surveyed assume that the expected low economic growth in the coming year will also be the determining component for the real estate industry. For 43 percent, it is the (re-)financing pressure that will have the most lasting influence on the development of the market.
The study on the outlook for the real estate markets in 2026 can be downloaded here.
