Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt AG
“Even if the ECB is now maintaining the interest rate level, the longer the Iran war lasts, the more likely it is that key interest rate hikes will become. The markets have already priced in two interest rate hikes this year and the ten-year swap, which is crucial for real estate financing, has risen significantly since the beginning of the war. Even in the unlikely event that key interest rates are not raised despite rising inflation rates, this would not be an all-clear. On the contrary, long-term interest rates could then continue to rise precisely because the capital markets would price in higher inflation expectations. Key interest rate cuts, which were expected before the Iran war, will come later or be cancelled altogether. In a long-term comparison, the level of key interest rates is moderate. The market will have to get used to the fact that no low interest rate phase is foreseeable.”
