Geopolitical upheavals and changing macroeconomic conditions will challenge the German industrial and logistics investment market in the first half of 2026. At the same time, new impulses for security-oriented special properties are being created. The current half-year results demonstrate the resilience of the market segment: with a transaction volume of EUR 2.4 billion, the market was almost at the level of the previous year (-1 percent). In view of the macroeconomic headwinds, this sideways movement is a clear signal of the strength of this type of use. In a long-term comparison, however, the subdued investment activity remained visible: Compared to the ten-year average, the volume was 30 percent lower and 34 percent lower than the five-year average. In the overall commercial context, the industrial & logistics type of use took second place with a market share of 22 percent, behind offices (27 percent).
Christian Kah, Head of Industrial & Logistics Germany at Colliers: “The biggest operational hurdle since the beginning of the year is the noticeable tightening of financing conditions as a result of geopolitical tensions. While the signals at the beginning of the year were positive thanks to the recovery in the rental market and the dynamic rental development, we are currently in a pronounced pricing phase. Core products are currently not achieving the desired exit factors due to more restrictive lending. However, since investor demand for logistics space remains high, this leads to a classic stalemate. We are observing that buyers and sellers are currently finding it difficult to find each other in terms of price. This prolongs the already extended exclusivity phases and slows down transaction activity.”
Individual transactions remain in the focus of investors for the time being
In the first half of the year, individual deals accounted for around 1.6 billion euros, or 68 percent of the transaction volume. More than half (54 percent) of these deals were made by international investors. The share of individual transactions corresponds to the five-year average. This means that transaction activity continues to follow established investment patterns. Large-volume transactions with a volume of more than 100 million euros, on the other hand, remained the exception. The largest registered individual deals included the purchase of the Mercedes-Benz logistics centre in Bischweier and the acquisition of a new building near Cologne by an open-ended special fund. Two other transactions were just below the 100 million euro mark.
Rental market provides positive impetus for the second half of the year
Some owners are currently deliberately postponing large-volume sales processes and are waiting for more planning security on the financial markets as well as a certain easing of the geopolitical conditions. Accordingly, patience and flexibility on both the buyer and seller side are still in demand.
“At the same time, however, we are seeing structural impulses on the rental side,” says Kah. These include more intensive trade flows between China and Europe as well as the increasing demand for flexible dual-use logistics properties that can also be used by defence-related players. Germany benefits from its role as a central hub in Europe. Both trends are likely to stimulate rental dynamics in the long term. This also makes German logistics real estate more attractive for international investors.
Nevertheless, financing conditions remain challenging. Financially strong buyers and project developers with a high equity ratio currently have a clear advantage, as they can finance transactions more flexibly. Sellers, on the other hand, have to be prepared for longer processes, as ambitious exit multiples are currently only feasible in exceptional cases,” Kah concludes.
Outlook: Rising yields as a logical consequence of changes in capital market interest rates
The gross prime yield for core logistics properties rose by 25 basis points to 5.00 percent in the second quarter for the first time in two years. The further development of geopolitical conflicts will continue to set the direction for yields in the coming months. Against the backdrop of public investment measures and rising defence spending, an interest rate environment is emerging in which long-term yields are likely to rise rather than fall. Kah concludes: “For current and future purchase price negotiations, this means a fundamental reassessment: Many purchase price negotiations are still based on interest rate assumptions that are now outdated. Price expectations are coming under pressure as a result, contracts are being renegotiated or critically questioned.”
At the same time, Kah believes that the current market environment opens up attractive opportunities for special properties. “On both the user and investor side, we are observing a growing demand for properties with specific features. For investors, these asset types represent a high-yield addition to existing portfolios. Value-add investors in particular will find attractive entry opportunities here. For the second half of the year, we expect a moderate revival in market activity, the total volume of which is likely to be roughly at the previous year’s level.”
