At this year’s EXPO REAL, we observed a clear shift in perspectives and a palpable sense of realism in many discussions. Away from the implicit hope that falling interest rates or rising rents would solve existing problems, and towards discussions centring on which strategies work – and which do not. This is an important signal for a market that continues to be characterised by higher financing costs.
Industry events such as EXPO REAL can act as important catalysts in such an environment. They provide guidance, facilitate price discovery and can help to trigger new benchmark transactions. It remains to be seen whether this effect will become apparent in the short term following this year’s fair.
From the perspective of the institutional secondary market, one thing is clear: capital for property is available, but it has become more selective. We are seeing a high level of willingness to make strategic acquisitions both at home and abroad. This is far less about the much-discussed scenario of distress sales resulting from higher refinancing costs than it is about targeted reallocations, active portfolio and liquidity management, and access to existing investments with a proven track record.
This is precisely why the secondary market can play an important role in the further normalisation of the property market. A look at the already significantly higher transaction volumes in established international markets illustrates the potential this holds.
For 2027, we expect growth in both deal volume and capital raising by institutional investors.
