Francesco Fedele, CEO, BF.direkt AG:
"After 100 days of the new federal government, I see bright and dark sides for the real estate industry. It started with great promises for more economic growth. Some approaches are promising, such as tax relief for companies, which are intended to help stimulate the economy, among other things. Many companies also want to invest many billions of euros in Germany, if their promises after a meeting with Chancellor Friedrich Merz in mid-July are to be believed. Planned spending on armaments and infrastructure is also likely to support the economy.
However, the associated credit-financed higher government debt could cause inflation to rise. The higher US tariffs could have the same effect on the EU states. This would dampen the consumer climate, and interest rates for real estate loans could also rise. The European Central Bank (ECB) seems to see the danger and refrained from adjusting interest rates at the end of July – after several interest rate cuts.
The German government cannot do much about the global political challenges. It can only try to react appropriately.
In contrast to housing policy, where it has greater room for manoeuvre, but I see contradictory signals. On the one hand, the streamlining of structural specifications is intended to help ensure that building permits are issued more quickly. I doubt that this 'approval turbo', if it ignites, will trigger a 'construction turbo'. This is because many factors that inhibit commercial and private residential construction continue to exist: These include the high costs of land, materials and labour. For private builders, real estate transfer tax is added.
Anyone who wants to build and rent out an apartment could be deterred by the extension of the rent brake. The plans to tighten index rent clauses and the rental of furnished apartments do the rest. The government's announcement that it will cut funds for energy-efficient renovations by a fifth also contributes to further uncertainty. The real estate market needs reliability and predictability."
