Mohammed Ziauddin, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: "Argentina has one of the strongest renewable resource bases globally, particularly for wind and solar. However, capacity additions are constrained by economic conditions, grid limitations, and evolving policy priorities, resulting in steady rather than accelerated growth."
Solar PV deployment in Argentina is concentrated in high irradiation regions such as the northwest and Cuyo, where utility scale projects have been developed under earlier auction frameworks and private agreements. Recent additions have been driven by corporate power purchase agreements under the MATER mechanism, along with selective project developments supported by international financing. However, further expansion is constrained by limited transmission capacity in resource-rich regions and reduced availability of long-term government-backed procurement programs compared to earlier auction rounds.
Wind energy remains the largest contributor to Argentina's non-hydro renewable capacity, supported by strong wind resources in Patagonia and southern regions. Wind projects developed under the RenovAr program form a significant portion of the existing capacity base, while new additions are increasingly being driven by private sector contracts and targeted financing. Although project pipelines remain active, growth is expected to proceed gradually due to grid constraints and financing challenges affecting large-scale developments.
Ziauddin adds: "Renewable energy expansion in Argentina is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and evolving policy priorities. High inflation, currency volatility, and elevated financing costs have impacted project viability and slowed investment momentum. In addition, transmission infrastructure remains the primary constraint limiting renewable expansion, restricting the integration of new capacity from high resource regions."
Policy focus has increasingly shifted toward the development of domestic hydrocarbons, particularly the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which has strengthened energy security and reduced import dependence. However, the availability of relatively low-cost domestic gas and continued investment in gas infrastructure have reinforced the role of thermal generation within the power mix, moderating the pace of renewable capacity additions.
Coal fired capacity in Argentina is expected to decline significantly from approximately 770MW in 2025 to around 120MW by 2035, indicating a gradual phase-down of coal-based generation within the power mix. This reduction reflects a combination of aging coal infrastructure, limited domestic coal resources, and a shift toward lower cost and more flexible generation sources such as natural gas and renewables.
Natural gas fired capacity continues to dominate the thermal segment and is projected to remain largely stable at around 23–24GW through 2035, supported by abundant domestic gas production, particularly from the Vaca Muerta formation. Gas fired generation plays a critical role in providing baseload and flexible supply to balance variability from renewable sources. Oil fired capacity is expected to remain relatively stable at around 2.7GW, primarily serving backup and peaking requirements.
Zia concludes: "Over the next decade, Argentina's renewable energy expansion will depend on improvements in transmission infrastructure, stabilization of macroeconomic conditions, and the development of market-based procurement mechanisms. While wind and solar capacity will continue to grow, the pace of expansion will remain measured, with natural gas continuing to provide system stability and flexibility."
