Joint press release by vdp and vdpResearch: Real estate prices to rise at the beginning of 2026

For the Bundesbank's new commercial real estate price indices, the price developments for multi-family houses, office and retail properties are calculated for various regional definitions and aggregated into a Germany index – which shows an increase of 2.1% for the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. For apartment buildings, a separate price index for the top 7 cities is also determined. Looking back, the start date is the first quarter of 2013.

"We are pleased that after many years of cooperation with the Deutsche Bundesbank, a new commercial real estate price index has now been created. This index reflects fluctuations quickly and precisely, especially in the more volatile commercial markets," explained Reiner Lux, Managing Director of vdpResearch.

The 2.3% increase in residential property prices in the first quarter of this year was mainly due to the development of owner-occupied residential property: prices for single-family houses and condominiums rose by 2.5% overall. The price of multi-family dwellings rose by 2.2% from January to March of this year compared with the same period a year earlier, which was weaker than in the previous quarters.

Measured by the vdp index for real estate interest rates, yields in rental housing construction increased by 0.8% on an annual basis, which is due to the fact that the price increase for multi-family dwellings was lower than the increase in new contract rents, which increased by 3.0% from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026.

"Even though the momentum of rent growth has currently slowed down somewhat, the situation on the housing market remains very tense. The continuing shortage of housing is causing prices and rents to continue to rise, especially in the metropolises," says Tolckmitt. He appealed to politicians to consistently implement the regulatory reforms to stimulate the housing market. This would be much more expedient and faster to implement than the considerations for the creation of a new federal housing association.   Especially since the "Alliance for Affordable Housing" and the associations united in the Federal Association of the Real Estate Industry Germany (BID), such as the vdp, have long since submitted corresponding proposals. As an example in the financing sector, he cited the state guarantees for large-scale loans for housing creation anchored in the coalition agreement.

In the top 7 cities, residential property price growth averaged 3.6% year-on-year. Among the seven metropolises, the highest price increases for residential properties were recorded in Hamburg (+4.9%). The growth rates were slightly lower in Düsseldorf (+4.1%), Frankfurt am Main and Cologne (+4.0% each) and Munich (+3.5%). This was followed by Berlin (+2.9%) and Stuttgart (+1.7%).

In terms of new contract rents, the top 7 cities recorded a lower growth rate than Germany as a whole (+3.0%) with an average of 2.4%. The range ranged from +3.9% (Hamburg) to +1.3% (Berlin). As in previous quarters, new contract rents in the capital thus rose again at a below-average rate. Measured by the vdp property interest index, yields in the conurbations fell by 1.3% compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

In the first quarter of this year, the prices of office and retail properties financed by banks also rose year-on-year. For office properties, the price increase was 1.9% compared with the first quarter of 2025. Prices for retail properties rose somewhat less – by 1.5%.

New contract rents for financed office properties also showed a higher increase of 2.8% than for financed retail properties (1.5%) – in each case compared to the same period of the previous year. As a result, office yields, as measured by the vdp property interest rate index, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while yields on retail properties stagnated in the reporting quarter (0.0%) as price and rent increases ran in parallel.

All index data on the individual vdp real estate price indices are available on both www.pfandbrief.de/vdp-immobilienpreisindex/ and www.vdpresearch.de/leistungen/preisindizes/ , including raw data.

*The rates of change mentioned here in the "Top 7" section were calculated on the basis of the previous vdp index methodology. They thus temporarily differ from the values shown in the Deutsche Bundesbank's Top 7 Index.