Colliers: Local supplier pipeline and broader investor interest support market recovery

The number of trades increased by 55 percent year-on-year, underlining the noticeable revival of market activity. As a result, the average ticket size fell from 25 million to 18 million euros compared to the previous year.

Nicole Römer, Head of Retail Germany at Colliers, explains: "We are observing increasing market dynamics in the crisis-resilient retail trade in small-volume, food-anchored retail park properties. Even though the portfolio share in the first quarter of 2026 was comparatively low at 21 percent, a well-filled pipeline of attractive local supplier portfolios is currently meeting a growing number of buyers. While domestic institutional investors have shaped the market here for years, we are currently seeing numerous international investors on the buyer side who are either active in Germany for the first time or returning after a long abstinence."

An indication of this is provided by the largest transaction completed in the first quarter: Among the co-bidders were numerous foreign investors who joined forces with well-known asset managers to form bidding consortia. The contract for the 37 food stores sold by TREI Real Estate was ultimately awarded to CEV Handelsimmobilien, a subsidiary of the Edeka headquarters.

In the first three months of the year, specialist stores and retail parks were by far the form of retail with the highest turnover. They each accounted for 58 percent of the transaction volume and registered sales in the retail segment. Three quarters and two thirds of these properties have a food anchor.

"Due to the increasing demand, the gross initial yields for retail parks have already fallen slightly to 5.60 percent at their peak, while specialty food stores are yielding 5.40 percent," says Römer.

The increase in demand for inner-city commercial buildings and shopping centres that has been observed since the second half of 2025 continues, despite the lack of large-volume sales from insolvencies in Germany's seven largest investment centres since the beginning of the year.

The focus of market activities in the past three months has been on properties with an increased need for revitalisation in the range of EUR 10 to 30 million. Private investors, family offices and project developers with strong equity capital in particular can thus leverage value appreciation potential with a manageable risk. Price negotiations in this segment continue to be tough. Yields are under pressure in shopping centers in particular.

By far the largest single transaction is the majority sale of the Leipzig shopping center Höfe am Brühl. Around 90 percent of the shares were transferred to the Czech investor Investika. Apart from the TREI portfolio, this is the only financial statement of the quarter in the three-digit million euro range. Further transactions of this magnitude are currently being negotiated. However, the processes take time.

While inner-city commercial buildings accounted for around a third of all deals, they accounted for only 15 percent of the transaction volume. In contrast, the market-defining Leipzig deal – with a share of only 11 percent of the number of deals – accounted for about 27 percent of the total volume.

Römer is confident for the rest of the year: "For the time being, we continue to assess the market for retail investments positively, even in the tense geopolitical situation. Rising inflationary pressure and declining propensity to consume are affecting local retail sectors much less than many other sectors, as was already observed after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. This is likely to further strengthen demand for stable local supplier portfolios, especially since they are among the preferred investment targets of highly selective banks due to their resilience. Sales of commercial buildings and shopping centres in need of revitalisation have long been dominated by investors with strong equity capital due to tight and expensive debt financing. For 2026 as a whole, we expect a transaction volume of 6 to 7 billion euros if the recovery path we have embarked on continues moderately."