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According to Savills' latest European logistics outlook, total investment reached €37.9 billion in 2024, up 14% from 2023 and the fifth-strongest year in history, just behind 2019. With further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) expected in 2025, this is likely to boost the economy and put further pressure on prime yields in Europe.
European industrial and logistics transaction volume reached its highest level for the year in the last quarter of 2024 at EUR 12 billion, an increase of 38% compared to the previous quarter and 18% compared to the same period in 2023. Investments therefore seem to have stabilised. In addition, Q4-2024 was the strongest quarter since Q3-2022.
Over the year as a whole, Romania (+420%), Belgium (+177%) and the Czech Republic (+125%) were the frontrunners. In contrast, the weakest performers were Greece (-73%), Ireland (-43%) and Austria (-24%). The German investment market for industrial real estate recorded a turnover of around EUR 6.9 billion, which represents an increase of one fifth compared to the previous year. Most markets in Europe showed an upward trend in 2024, with 12 out of 19 reporting growth in investment volume.
Overall, 24% of European commercial investment in 2024 was accounted for by the industrial and logistics sector, which was thus able to maintain its share even with declining volumes. Andrew Blennerhassett, Associate in Savills' Industrial & Logistics Research Team, comments: "The average prime yield for industrial and logistics real estate in Europe fell by three basis points to 5.27% in the fourth quarter of 2024 as risk-averse capital targets prime assets in core markets. There are still significant differences in Europe, with prime yields continuing to rise in some markets while falling in others – the latter being the case in Milan, Barcelona and Madrid, for example. As investment volumes are expected to increase in 2025, we expect further movements as soon as more price evidence is available. Crucially, investors are also increasingly in agreement on pricing."
George Coleman, EMEA Industrial & Logistics at Savills, adds: "2024 has been a difficult year for the commercial real estate market. While prices in the industrial and logistics sectors recovered quickly, we were only able to observe the return of a functioning transaction market in the last quarter. There is now a greater consensus among market participants on pricing. Therefore, we expect increased activity, with a continued focus on the best sub-markets with positive supply/demand dynamics."
In terms of the occupier market, Savills saw total European industrial and logistics take-up in 2024 at 27.5 million sqm, down 7% from 2023 and 4% above the pre-pandemic average. As a result, total revenue was more or less in line with expectations, with the weaker performance in the fourth quarter suggesting a continuation of the same rather than a deterioration in conditions.
The largest year-on-year decreases were recorded in Dublin (-58.6%), Belgium (-35.7%) and France (-22.9%). Portugal (+84.6%), Spain (20.9%), the Netherlands (+5.2%) and the United Kingdom (+3.8%) were the only markets to record growth.
The vacancy rate also fell by nine basis points to 6.06%. This development follows several quarters in which the growth of the vacancy rate has slowed. Although the market seems to be making a turnaround, it is important to note that the recovery is unlikely to be uniform or steady. In fact, Savills' figures show that vacancy rates are 85 basis points higher than they were twelve months ago.
Sam Quellyn-Roberts, Global Occupier Services Director, EMEA Logistics Markets at Savills, says: "We expect the European industrial and logistics real estate market to remain robust in 2025, driven by the growth of e-commerce, diversification of supply chains and technological advances such as AI and automation. However, challenges such as rising costs, limited supply, geopolitical and regulatory pressures can influence the market dynamics. Regional differences will also play an important role, with Germany, Poland and selected Central European markets showing great potential.
