After the first six months of 2026, the Berlin investment market can only post a subdued half-year balance: With an investment volume of around €633 million, it is almost 52% below its result from the same period last year. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
"While the capital can regularly rely on major deals, which are often among the most important transactions nationwide, the market activity in the segment of individual sales has so far only taken place in the smaller categories up to the €50 million mark. This is also reflected in the average volume per deal, which is currently only trading at a low € 18 million – the average of the last five years was € 45 million," explains Jan Dohrwardt, Managing Director and Berlin Branch Manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
However, the weaker result in the middle of the year can be put into perspective by the fact that other large locations are also facing the same challenges in the wake of the market environment characterized by uncertainty: For example, only Munich (€1.24 billion) is currently able to set itself apart and exceed the €1 billion threshold – Berlin, on the other hand, remains at least the top position in terms of the number of deals in a small-scale market. The most important revenue drivers are the Berlin-based properties of the two nationwide portfolios from the food and specialist retail sector (Power Foods) as well as a package sale from the healthcare sector, which drove the portfolio share to a high 32%.
Not least due to the increase in financing costs compared to the beginning of the year, there is currently a slight upward pressure on net prime yields. Accordingly, offices in the top segment have risen by 15 basis points to 4.50%, premium logistics assets have risen 10 basis points to 4.60% and high-street properties have already risen to 3.95% in Q1.
Changed sales structure due to small-scale market, Cityrand at the top in the interim balance
Against the backdrop of the still relatively low transaction volume, it is hardly surprising that the majority of property types and sub-locations in the Berlin market area have had to accept a decline in turnover. Not least due to the included assets from the aforementioned Power Foods portfolio, retail investments generated the highest revenue contribution in the first half of the year (a good 26%). In addition to this deal, smaller specialist retail, commercial and department store investments on the outskirts of the city should be mentioned first and foremost – these include the sale of the vacant former C&A department store in Berlin-Tegel to the Edeka Group.
While the outskirts of the city also account for the most decisive share of the overall result across all property types at around 50%, the volume of the top city (a good 3%) and the city (almost 38%) reflects the absence of major transactions. Nevertheless, more than 15 sales, which are spread across very different asset classes within the S-Bahn ring, are a clear sign of the market dynamics in Berlin's most sought-after submarkets. In summary, it can be said that the small-scale market activity is expressed in a structuring that has so far been unusual for Berlin in terms of property types, size classes and locations. This is also reflected in the high proportion of other investments (a good 31%; including healthcare and real estate). At the same time, the important office sector remains significantly underrepresented at a good 13% in the middle of the year, but is likely to start the third quarter with a noticeable tailwind from the currently very dynamic Berlin rental market.
Prospects: Revenue growth expected for the capital, user markets send positive signal
In the first half of the year, the Berlin investment market has not yet shown the face that we know from it from the last decade. For example, it is currently unable to report a top position in the sales ranking of A-locations and remains without top transactions nationwide after the first six months of 2026. However, this does not mean that the capital's market has come to a standstill. In the current year, investment activities have increasingly taken place in the smaller size segments and in some cases outside the top property types such as premium office or high-street investments.
Measured against influencing factors such as the geopolitical environment, financial market conditions and the economy, there are still no signs of a noticeable improvement in the third quarter either. "However, the capital has often shown in the past that it can record considerable investment volumes even without the tailwind of a positive market environment. Accordingly, it can be assumed that Berlin is likely to increase its turnover significantly in the second half of the year, as far as the supply situation allows. Last but not least, the current above-average take-up of office space, which should further strengthen confidence in the office investment sector, gives cause for optimism," adds Jan Dohrwardt.
Selective adjustments to prime yields are still possible for the coming quarters if risk assessments and financing costs remain volatile. However, a significant increase in the breadth of asset classes does not seem likely from today's perspective.
