Unexpected comeback: Why the upswing in the commercial real estate market is surprising

The commercial real estate market will show surprising strength in 2025 – contrary to many forecasts. Especially in the USA, but also in Europe, office, retail and industrial properties are recovering faster than expected.

A rare market phase: In recent years, residential and commercial real estate have diverged unusually: while prices for residential real estate have continued to rise, commercial real estate has come under pressure. Historically, such deviations are extremely rare – especially since this time they occurred without an accompanying recession. In the meantime, however, there are signs of a rapprochement between the two markets.

What factors are driving this development?

• Macroeconomic stability: A more resilient economy and gradually falling interest rates strengthen the willingness to invest.
• Selective opportunities: High-quality office space and logistics properties remain in demand – and the retail sector is also gaining momentum again, supported by modernisations and new utilisation concepts.
• Investor confidence: Funds and institutional investors are increasingly entering segments that were previously avoided.

The trend reversal makes it clear that this asset class is more resilient than often assumed. For investors, this opens up the opportunity to benefit from the recovery at an early stage – provided they focus on the right locations and segments.