BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q4 2025
Leipzig's investment market can look back on a very subdued year. With a total investment volume of only €204 million, a significant decline (-43% compared to 2024) was recorded for the third year in a row. This means that the market remains at a far below-average level and will not be able to build on its old strength for the time being. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
"Looking at the year as a whole, it is clear that the transaction dynamics varied in the various quarters. After a very weak start to the year, the frequency of trades has temporarily increased noticeably. The second quarter was also able to score with the second-highest result of the year. With the acquisition of the retail park in the "Plagwitzer Höfe" district development by the Rewe Group, one of the largest deals of the year was successfully concluded in the spring. While the third quarter was disappointing both in terms of the number of trades and the volume traded, transaction momentum increased significantly again at the end of the year. In the last quarter, almost €90 million was placed in the Leipzig market," says Stefan Sachse, Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH and Leipzig branch manager.
While the prime yield for offices remains unchanged at 5.30%, it for commercial buildings has risen by 10 bps to 4.90% over the course of the year. The logistics segment also rose by 25 bps to 4.70%.
Retail and logistics are the strongest asset classes
With a market share of 30%, retail real estate will be the strongest asset class in 2025. In addition to one registered transaction in the commercial building segment, only specialist stores and retail parks were traded. In particular, the aforementioned acquisition of the retail park in the "Plagwitzer Höfe" district development drove the sales volume in the retail segment. In the logistics segment, too, there were a few somewhat larger deals, making them the second strongest asset class with a market share of just under 27%. In particular, the purchase of development land has ensured 3rd place in the "Other" collective category.
Large deals were in short supply in the Leipzig market in 2025. No deal beyond the € 50 million mark could be realized. Due to the very low overall investment volume in the market area, the size class of € 25 million to € 50 million accounts for a comparatively high market share of around 43%. However, only a few deals contributed to this result. The greatest closing momentum was registered in the segment up to € 10 million, with a market share of 38%.
In particular, the traded logistics and retail park properties, as well as the land acquisitions, have shifted the investment focus to the secondary locations and the periphery. The lack of traded core properties in the city is clearly noticeable.
Prospects
The investment market environment remains challenging for the time being. This applies to the markets nationwide as well as to Leipzig, because the geopolitical and economic factors shaping the investment market will remain market-determining for long stretches in 2026. Currently, however, there are increasing signs that point to a gradual positive economic development. Among other things, the federal government's special infrastructure fund is likely to provide a decisive tailwind from the economic side from the second half of the year at the latest.
In addition to a real economy picking up speed, investment markets are likely to benefit from the emerging more stable development on the financial markets. A prolonged phase of monetary policy stability is likely, which should ensure more predictability and faster price discovery in transaction processes. In addition, the range of marketable and attractive investment products should also increase in Leipzig. As a consequence, this combination should lead to more transaction dynamics – even in the mid-range and larger price segments.
"Coming from the stabilised level of 2025, Leipzig's investment market is heading for a busier year in 2026. It remains to be seen to what extent it will be possible to set course for the €300 million mark again. Selective adjustments are possible in terms of yields," says Hannes Baderschneider, Leipzig branch manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
