The Hamburg warehouse and logistics market achieved take-up of 126,000 m² in the 1st quarter. It is thus at the same level as in the previous year (+1%) and exceeds the ten-year average by 16%. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“This positive result is particularly pleasing after the rather weaker quarterly results from the second half of 2025 of a total of only 90,000 m². Overall, there has been a significant upturn in the market,” says Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
A major deal from the e-commerce segment in Hamburg-Allermöhe for around 50,000 m² made a significant contribution to this good turnover. In addition, a company from the aviation industry has leased 17,300 m² and the logistics service provider Blitz Distribution for 16,900 m² in the port area. These three contracts alone account for around 67% of take-up and underline the great importance of the Billbrook/Allermöhe sub-markets and the port for Hamburg’s logistics market.
The rent level has risen due to the increasingly scarce supply of space in good locations. After the prime rent had been constant at €8.50/m² for a long time, it has now risen by 3.5% to €8.80/m². The average rent has risen by a good 5% to €6.85/m².
Trading companies clearly ahead through major deals, large-scale contracts determine the result
Above all, the large-scale lease agreement of an e-commerce company puts retail companies in first place in the distribution of industries. With a share of just under 44%, they relegate the logistics service providers usually leading on the Hamburg market to second place. At a good 31%, they demand slightly less space than the average for a first quarter. Manufacturing companies complete the main demand sectors with a share of 17%.
The distribution of take-up by size class is dominated by large leases. Almost 40% of the result is attributable to the segment over 20,000 m², and a further 27% to the 12,000 to 20,000 m² category. Deals between 8,000 and 12,000 m² also achieved a strong result of a good 15%, which is below the high previous year’s figure, but above the long-term average for a first quarter.
So far, there has been a little less movement than usual in contracts up to 5,000 m². Both the owner-occupier share of earnings (8.8%) and take-up in new-build properties (7.8%) are at a comparatively low level and, above all, significantly below the high figures of the previous year.
Prospects: at least similar take-up expected as in the previous year, prime rent expected to remain constant
Hamburg’s logistics market has made an excellent start to the year and is increasing noticeably compared to previous quarters. Overall, demand is quite solid, but the leasing processes are taking longer in some cases, and due to the uncertainty about the further economic dynamics, some companies are also acting quite hesitantly and, in case of doubt, are waiting a little longer.
In principle, the development of port throughput is of great importance for demand on the Hamburg logistics market. Against the backdrop of the war in Iran and the Middle East conflict, the (global) economy is facing the challenges posed by high energy prices, rising inflation and rising interest rates, as well as changes in supply chains. In addition, the erratic US tariff policy remains a risk factor.
“Nevertheless, the logistics market in general could benefit from adjustments in the area of supply chains, and at the national level, the special funds for infrastructure and defence are expected to provide important impetus for the economy. Overall, by the end of the year, take-up of logistics space is expected to be at least similar to that of the previous year; here it was 310,000 m². If further large-scale contracts can be concluded, the result is likely to be significantly higher. Rents are expected to remain stable for the time being,” explains Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
