Aengevelt sees the Office asset class facing massive restructuring.
The ifo Institute expects a 12% decline in the demand for office space nationwide by 2030 as a result of working from home. The forecast is based on the fact that 69% of employers now practice hybrid working models consisting of individual home office days and presence days. However, office space reductions are usually only made when switching to flex offices and expiring leases, because cubicle offices do not initially become dispensable if employees take individual home office days.
However, Aengevelt also derives a lower demand for office space from the demographically induced decline in the labour force potential, which will lead to a decline in the number of office workers by around 9% by 2040 according to realistic scenarios. The impact of AI could be even stronger, with numerous office workplaces falling victim, especially in the areas of marketing and social media, programming, accounting, legal, HR and assistance. According to a survey of 502 HR managers by Trend Research on behalf of GSG Berlin, up to 27% of office space could be freed up by 2030 due to AI-related personnel savings.
In Aengevelt's opinion, the individual forecast values are only partially reliable because they are assessments and compensating factors such as a global economy picking up again in the medium term could have a relativizing effect. However, a decline in the demand for office space of up to 10 to 20% could occur in the next ten years. Several years ago, Aengevelt had already reported from various major cities that industry-relevant employers were reducing office space by subletting or by reducing the rental space when leases expired.



