NAI apollo: Frankfurt office market with strongest quarter of the year, but nine-month take-up remains significantly below previous year

Although the group of "banks, financial service providers and insurance companies" remains the sector with the highest turnover, its weight has decreased compared to the previous year. With around 62,200 square metres, it has a market share of 22.8 per cent in the first three quarters of 2026, after 35.9 per cent in the same period last year. "Public facilities" move into second place with around 26,700 square metres (9.8 per cent). "The reason for this is primarily the lease of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. With around 23,000 square metres in the revitalised RAW, this represents the largest deal in the third quarter," explains Kanzler. This is followed by the "construction and real estate industry" with around 24,400 square metres (8.9 per cent). At the middle of the year, "law firms, notaries and legal advisors" were still in second place, they now follow in fourth place with around 22,000 square meters.

In terms of space, leases continue to be concentrated in the CBD, but to a slightly lesser extent than in the middle of the year. In the first three quarters of 2026, the CBD sub-markets Bankenlage, Westend, Stadtmitte and Finanzviertel West accounted for around 143,800 square metres. This represents 52.6 per cent of take-up, compared with 56.5 per cent in the first half of the year. The sub-market with the highest turnover is by far the banking location with around 85,400 square metres, followed by the city centre with around 30,100 square metres. Third place is occupied by the Europaviertel with around 25,300 square metres, which is primarily driven by the lease from BaFin. "A good fifth of take-up is accounted for by new buildings, project developments and revitalised properties: they reach around 60,800 square metres or 22.3 per cent, which means that the market share has increased by 6.3 percentage points compared to the middle of the year," says Preuße.

Prime rents in the third quarter reached a record level of EUR 55.30 per square metre, up 4.9 per cent on the previous year's figure of EUR 52.70 per square metre. As in previous quarters, demand is concentrated on space in the top segment in top locations. Deals in attractive new developments such as "Opernplatz 2" as well as in the last available space of established premium properties characterise the letting activity in the top segment.

The gap between prime and average rents is thus widening. "At the end of the third quarter, the area-weighted average rent was 28.00 euros per square metre, which is 3.50 euros per square metre or 11.1 per cent below the previous year's figure. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the decline is much smaller at 0.20 euros per square metre. The effect of the large-volume and high-priced deals of the previous year, which are excluded from the twelve-month analysis, is thus likely to have largely run its course," says Angersbach.

At the end of September, around 1.35 million square metres of office space were available for short-term lease in the market area. The market-active vacancy rate was 11.7 per cent, 0.1 percentage points above the value at mid-year. Following the strong increases in the previous quarters, the trend has slowed down in recent months. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year (10.7 per cent), however, there is still an increase of 1.0 percentage points.

In the medium to long term, new construction is unlikely to provide any noticeable relief to the market. Speculative project starts remain rare. The larger projects are often largely let before completion. If individual spaces are completed without pre-letting, they are often located in decentralised locations and have so far been reluctant to market there. One example is the Omega House in Offenbach-Kaiserlei. "With construction phases A and D, the revitalisation was completed there in the third quarter of 2026. Users for the total of around 52,000 square metres of office space have not yet been found. This has currently made a significant contribution to the slight increase in vacancy rates at the overall market level," says Preuße.

The project pipeline in the coming years is unlikely to ease. After the weak year 2025 with around 48,000 square metres, the completion volume is picking up again: at the current time, around 117,000 square metres are expected for 2026, around 126,000 square metres for 2027 and around 245,000 square metres for 2028. However, only a smaller part of this is still available for users in each case. Of the completions of the current year, just under 54,000 square metres are still available for rent, and in 2027 it will be around 25,000 square metres, or just under a fifth of the volume. For 2028, around 95,400 square metres have not yet been allocated. "However, only just under 8 percent of this is in the CBD. This means that anyone looking for modern space in central locations is likely to encounter a shortage of space in the coming years," says Kanzler.

The decisive factor for the year-end result is whether even larger lettings are achieved in the fourth quarter. This will determine how significantly take-up will fall short of the strong previous year. The economic and geopolitical environment is a factor of uncertainty here. "Many companies are well advanced in clarifying their future space requirements. However, they are postponing the implementation of planned space consolidations and the final decision on possible new leases as long as the economic outlook remains unclear. Part of this demand is therefore unlikely to have an impact on revenue until next year," says Angersbach.

On the supply side, little is changing: modern space remains scarce in central locations, which should further support prime rents. At the other end of the market, on the other hand, pressure is growing on older portfolios that no longer meet today's user requirements. "The development between the central locations and the rest of the market is likely to diverge further. For some of the vacant spaces, office use will hardly be sustainable in the long term. Here, alternatives are coming into view, from comprehensive revitalisation to conversion, for example for housing, hotels or educational institutions. However, both options are not self-runners, as marketing in decentralised locations shows. In addition, building structure, planning law and economic efficiency must fit together. For the time being, therefore, no trend reversal is expected for vacancy at the overall market level," says Preuße.