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The logistics investment market started 2025 with an investment volume of just under €1.3 billion, around 8% below the comparable figure for the previous year and 31% below the ten-year average. After a very good final quarter of 2024 with a volume of €2.5 billion, the year is off to a somewhat quieter start, which is mainly due to the fact that no transaction in the three-digit million range has yet been recorded in the first three months of the year. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
"Against this backdrop, however, the quarterly result is very remarkable and, when looking at deals up to €100 million, is almost twice as high as in the first quarter of 2024 and also 23% above the long-term average in this segment," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
The fact that the market remains very lively is also underlined by the fact that the number of registered transactions is significantly higher than in the previous two years. And while portfolio deals have so far made a comparatively low contribution to the investment volume at 16.1%, individual deals have cracked the billion mark, which they have only managed to do three times in the first quarter to date.
Due to the changed framework conditions, net prime yields remained constant in the first quarter and remain at 4.25% in the A locations and 4.45% in Leipzig.
In the top markets, a total of around € 290 million was invested in logistics properties in the first quarter, roughly the same volume as in the same period last year. At a good 22%, their share of the overall result is slightly below the long-term average.
In the distribution of investments by size class, the majority of investments (54%) in the previous year were in large-volume transactions of €100 million or more, and no deal has yet been recorded in this segment. By contrast, market activity is currently above average in the price categories between €25 million and €50 million and between €50 million and €100 million, in each of which just under 35% was invested. Foreign investor interest in the German logistics investment market remains high and is reflected in a share of a good 59% of the transaction volume in the first quarter.
"The development of the investment market is currently determined by very different influencing factors. The interest of national and international investors in logistics real estate remains high and continues to grow, as underlined by the general market activity and increasing shares of the total commercial investment volume. The market development in 2024 has already shown that buyers and sellers have found a mutually acceptable price level and a noticeable improvement in investor sentiment has begun. Against this background, an increasing investment volume can be assumed in 2025," says Christopher Raabe.
However, the market environment is expected to remain challenging. The leading German economic institutes expect economic development to continue to weaken. While the new German government and the available investment package are expected to provide positive impetus, the effects of US trade policy with its far-reaching tariffs are not yet foreseeable. In addition, the unresolved geopolitical crises persist.
With a corresponding real estate offer, investors should nevertheless strive not to miss the right time to enter. In connection with large-volume transactions, a higher investment volume can be expected for the year as a whole than in the previous year (€6.9 billion).
Prime yields are likely to remain stable due to the recent rise in financing costs, higher yields on German government bonds and key interest rate decisions by the major central banks, which are difficult to calculate due to US tariff policy.
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