According to NAI apollo, partner of NAI Partners Germany, the warehouse and logistics space market in the Rhine-Main region closed the first quarter of 2026 with a take-up of 93,300 square metres as a result of lettings and owner-occupancy. This means that the result is between the results of previous years. For example, the previous quarterly result was clearly below (Q4 2025: 151,700 square metres) and the first quarter of 2025 was slightly below (Q1 2025: 98,500 square metres). In contrast, the current result is 21.9 percent above the medium-term average of the first quarters of the past five years.
"At first glance, the current result is sobering after steadily increasing sales over the course of the last year. However, a comparison with the previous beginnings of the year shows that the first three months of 2026 represent one of the strongest first quarters in terms of sales in recent years. There has still been no easing of the general conditions. Above all, the Iran war, which has led to a significant increase in energy prices, has slowed down the economic recovery, which was already only subdued. Companies are currently acting cautiously, and future business expectations are falling," says Dr. Konrad Kanzler, Head of Research at NAI apollo. "To a certain extent, this is also evident in the current market activities in the local warehousing and logistics market. The comparison with the first quarter of 2025 shows little change in take-up. However, the number of contracts concluded is at a very low level, including around 10 percent below that of the same quarter of the previous year," adds Sven Tilse. Head of Industrial and Logistics at NAI apollo.
Large-scale deals support the sales result
Leasing activity has declined compared to the previous year, especially in the mid-size segment. For example, the cluster between 3,000 and 5,000 square metres shows a 54.5 per cent decline in take-up to 12,600 square metres. At the same time, the take-up volume in the segments below 1,500 square metres and above 10,000 square metres rose to 10,600 and 48,000 square metres respectively (+39.1 and +16.5 per cent). The sales result is thus largely driven by large-scale deals. Leasing in the outer peripheral areas of the market area is of great importance. Expansion of space by Teamlog in Obernburg am Main over around 15,000 square metres or a lease of almost 20,000 square metres by the MSK Pharma Group in a project development in Bensheim are key examples of this.
All deals above 5,000 square metres are accounted for by transport, warehousing and logistics companies, which means that they are by far the most important demand group with a market share of almost 80 per cent and have further expanded their dominance compared to the end of 2025. "In all other sectors, leasing activities in the Rhine-Main area have been significantly reduced, so that the market shares here have fallen to less than 5 percent in each case. This also explains the decline in sales in the mid-range segments, where companies from industry and manufacturing, among others, are usually particularly active," explains Kanzler.
Lack of new construction slows down market activity and focuses on existing properties
In the first quarter of 2026, leasing activity focused on existing properties, which have a market share of around 80 percent. "The new construction segment is not limited by a lack of demand – this is still high. Rather, there is a lack of corresponding offer. Construction and financing costs remain high. In addition, the uncertain economic development is slowing down corresponding construction activities, as is the lack of building plots suitable for warehouse and logistics use. Especially in the large-scale segment, this is leading to a decline in take-up and shifting market activities from the sought-after central locations to the outskirts of the market area," says Stefan Weyrauch, Partner at NAI apollo.
Within the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main market area as a whole, the southern market areas continue to stand out, accounting for a combined market share of around 87 percent. The "South-East" submarket, which is located between the A3 and A5 motorways, occupies the dominant position in the market. "However, fewer rentals in sought-after locations near the airport are responsible for this. Instead, this result is driven by the few project leases and the major deals in the outermost locations," adds Kanzler. Of the other sub-markets, the "East" still achieves a significant market share of 11.7 percent.
Weakening economic recovery slows down warehouse and logistics real estate market
Compared to previous quarters, the first quarter of 2026 was below average, but the medium-term average was clearly exceeded, which is positive in view of the renewed increase in market risks. "However, the current result is mainly driven by a few larger deals in a single industry, while a large part of the market participants are acting with growing restraint. A broader market recovery has therefore failed to materialize. In view of the Iran war and the associated significant increase in energy prices as well as rising inflation, only an improvement in small steps can be expected in the coming months," said Tilse. "Wait-and-see attitudes will also characterise the local warehousing and logistics market. At the same time, demand for new-build space remains high – especially in the central sub-markets and in the large-scale segment. However, the lack of space on offer limits market activity here. This opens up further potential for increases in rents," adds Weyrauch. At the end of the first quarter, the prime rent for warehouse and logistics space of 5,000 square metres or more was 8.60 euros per square metre, 50 cents above the previous year's figure.
The strong growth in sublease agreements in 2025 has not yet shown a continuation in the new year. "However, the flexibly designed rental options that such contracts offer that can be implemented at short notice are still in demand and we will encounter them again in the coming months," says Tilse. With regard to future market developments, it is difficult to make a forecast given the geopolitical risks, which are currently increasing again. "A weakening of the economic development and falling business expectations of companies will increasingly accompany new leasing decisions. At the same time, however, there are also positive impulses. Thus, there is still an increasing need for storage and logistics space in the course of the expansion of the company. Supported by several deals in the range between 10,000 and 20,000 square metres, which are currently being finalised, NAI apollo expects a sales result for 2026 again slightly below the 500,000 square metre mark and thus in the range of previous years.
