Projektentwicklungsmarkt zwischen Aufhellung und Realisierungsstau: Baustarts bleiben auf niedrigem Niveau

The start dates of construction also speak against a broad trend reversal. The newly launched project volume in the second quarter of 2026 is around 65 percent below the peak of the time series. In the residential segment, the gap to the peak of the second quarter of 2022 is around 67 percent.

"The pipeline in the residential segment is getting a little bigger again. However, the decisive factor is whether these projects overcome the threshold from planning to construction. This is exactly where the market has been stuck so far," says Embacher.

Around 29 percent of the residential project volume is currently affected by a delayed start of construction. In terms of late completions, the share in the residential segment will increase from 23 percent in the second half of 2025 to 30 percent in the first half of 2026.

"Even if the number of building permits is actually increasing, no one should be mistaken: On paper there is a plus, but in reality many projects do not make it past the permit. This is due to the continuing rise in costs for materials and financing. But this is also due to the still missing simplifications, the necessary push in reducing slowing down bureaucracy. Where is the overdue building type E-Law? In addition, incentives for investments through a special depreciation and other accompanying measures would help," says Dirk Salewski, President of the BFW Federal Association of Independent Real Estate and Housing Companies.

While housing remains comparatively stable, the correction continues in other segments. The volume of office projects fell by 5.7 per cent to around 25.8 million m² compared to the end of 2025, while the decline in logistics projects was 7.7 per cent to around 50.2 million m². Senior living recorded a decline of 8.4 percent to around 6.8 million m².