Colliers: More movement on the German industrial and logistics leasing market

Christian Kah, Head of Industrial & Logistics Germany, says: "One of the most market-defining trends we registered in 2025 was, among other things, the increasing presence of Asian users in the German logistics real estate market. Their share of take-up rose to 15 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In 2025 as a whole, it was 10 percent and in the past five years an average of only 5 percent." Kah also observes that Asian companies, after renting last year due to existing networks, especially in North Rhine-Westphalia, are now looking for space throughout Germany. In addition, they have settled in the Frankfurt and Stuttgart regions, among other places. According to Kah, these are companies from the e-commerce sector as well as from the automotive sector.

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the top 8 stores achieved take-up of 558,000 square metres and accounted for 37 per cent of total take-up in Germany. This is slightly below the average share of the past five years of 40 percent. However, take-up – more or less at the previous year's level (-1 per cent) – fell short of the five-year average by 10 per cent.

Within the top 8 logistics regions, Hamburg achieved the highest take-up of space with 108,100 square metres, thanks to a large-volume deal concluded by a trading company. Cologne followed with 98,300 square metres and showed the strongest increase (+183 per cent) within the top 8 regions. This was due on the one hand to two large-volume deals from logistics service providers and almost twice as many deals compared to the same period last year (19 vs. 10 in the first quarter of 2025). The Leipzig site brought up the rear with 17,600 square meters and showed the sharpest decline with minus 65 percent. This is mainly due to the lack of major deals there.

The largest letting in the first three months of the current year took place in Hamburg in the Stadt-Ost submarket. There, an e-commerce company rented around 50,100 square meters of logistics space in its portfolio. The second largest lease was in the Cologne logistics region. An Asian logistics service provider has converted its previous sublease into a main lease for a 35,000 square metre logistics hall.

The focus of users in the top 8 markets was predominantly on the small-scale space segment up to 3,000 square metres. More than two-thirds of the deals (68 per cent) were concluded here, accounting for 21 per cent of take-up. This corresponds to a slight increase compared to the same period last year (first quarter of 2025: 17 percent).

At the end of the first quarter, demand within the top 8 markets was almost evenly distributed among all user groups. The strongest sectors were logistics service providers and the manufacturing industry, each with a share of 28 percent of take-up, closely followed by retail companies with 27 percent.

After the first quarter of 2026, 7 of the top 8 locations had a prime rent of over 8.00 euros/square metre – only Leipzig was below this value. The top 8 logistics regions recorded an average growth of 4 percent in both prime and average rents. In Frankfurt, due to the tight market and the high asking rents, the highest rent growth for prime rents was registered at 7 percent. In Leipzig, it remained stable due to the large amount of space available and in Hamburg due to the price sensitivity of users. In Stuttgart and Munich, however, average rents of 10 percent and 7 percent respectively have risen significantly more strongly than prime rents (5 percent each). This is due on the one hand to the scarce supply of space and on the other hand to the lack of land there. As a result, hardly any new developments are taking place.

"Since the end of 2025, we have observed a noticeable improvement in sentiment on the rental market. Demand is picking up again, especially in the big box sector, where restraint has dominated over the past two years. Large users such as Amazon have reactivated their expansion strategies and are once again looking for suitable space. This development is driven by the continued growth in parcel volumes, according to BPEX," says Kah. In addition, Colliers expects increasing demand from the arms industry. After the former smaller deals in 2025, there were already larger leases in the first quarter of 2026 - including a planned warehouse with around 65,300 square meters in Wettringen, Münsterland, for the clothing management of the Bundeswehr.

"We expect that the focus of this industry will be primarily on already existing clusters and that longer approval processes will lead to deals being delayed and only becoming visible on the rental market in the course of the year," concludes Kah. Despite existing geopolitical uncertainties, however, Colliers is positive about the rest of the year overall and expects a moderate recovery in the rental market above the previous year's level.