Study: Cautious optimism is driving European infrastructure lending

It is a similar cautiously optimistic story for infrastructure investing from the survey with infrastructure and private credit fund managers, investment bankers working in private credit and senior executives at infrastructure providers across the UK, Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy and Sweden.

Just over two out of three (68%) expect moderate increases in infrastructure investing with only 5% forecasting significant increases. Around 28% believe the market will remain broadly stable. Again the theme of moderate growth was emphasised in views on the evolving role of private credit in infrastructure lending. Around 81% expect a moderate increase in its market shares with just 2% predicting a significant increase and 18% no significant change.

The picture is slightly different on views about competition in the market but still tending towards moderation. Around 56% characterised the market as moderately competitive with a few dominant players, with 40% believing it is highly competitive with many players. Just 4% believe it is relatively less competitive.

Current hot spots for lending activity include the DACH region and the UK & Ireland, with 74% choosing Germany, Austria and Switzerland among their top three regions for lending, ahead of 71% selecting the UK & Ireland. More than half (54%) picked Southern Europe and 46% the Nordics.

Military and defence and energy transmission are seen as clear leaders for lending opportunities over the next three to five years, with 58% selecting military and defence and 57% selecting energy transmission among their top three. Around 47% selected renewable energy and 42% data centres.

However military and defence and renewable energy are also seen the most overcapitalised and crowded sectors currently, with 50% selecting each among their top three ahead of 45% pointing to transportation and 43% energy transmission.