Retail spending in Germany is rising more slowly than the EMEA average

The trend in real retail spending in the EMEA region shows marked regional differences. Whilst, according to a forecast by Oxford Economics, it is expected to rise by 0.6 per cent in Germany in 2026, growth of 1.8 per cent is anticipated for the EMEA region as a whole. Growth rates of between 2.4 and 2.6 per cent are forecast for France and the UK. In terms of transaction volume for retail property, Germany remains in second place behind the UK. This is according to the latest ‘EMEA Retail Snapshot November 2026’ from Colliers.

Consumer confidence in Europe has weakened over the course of 2026 and remains below the level seen at the start of the year. Persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty are weighing on consumer sentiment. Demand for retail space is increasingly concentrated in prime locations, whilst it remains weaker in secondary locations. Investors favour properties offering stable returns and long-term, sustainable usage concepts.

“The subdued consumer climate is exacerbating polarisation in the European retail market,” says Larissa Towey, Senior Analyst, Operational Real Estate, EMEA Research at Colliers. “Leading retailers are focusing on strategically important flagship stores rather than expanding their branch networks across the board.”

Despite subdued consumer spending, Germany remains one of the most important European markets for retail property investment, alongside the UK and Italy. In terms of transaction volume from July 2025 to June 2026, it ranks second behind the UK, followed by Italy.

In Germany, investor interest is focused primarily on food-anchored retail properties, supermarkets and retail parks. In March 2026, for example, CEV Handelsimmobilien acquired a portfolio of 37 food shops from Trei Real Estate for around 200 million euros. In the UK, market activity was characterised, amongst other things, by major shopping centre transactions. Italy benefited in particular from the sale of a majority stake in the property at Via Monte Napoleone 8 in Milan for around 1.1 billion euros.

Even beyond Germany, these property sectors are among the preferred investment targets for investors in the EMEA region. They benefit from comparatively stable consumer demand and reliable income streams. Retail parks are also characterised by their good accessibility and their focus on everyday needs.

“For investors, the key factors are the sustainability of rental income and whether the location and retail concept are compelling in the long term. Stable demand, the quality of the tenants and a usage concept that remains viable even under changing market conditions are crucial,” emphasises Nicole Römer, Head of Retail at Colliers Germany.

The differences between prime locations and secondary locations are particularly evident in the European retail lettings markets. In major cities such as London, Paris and Milan, high demand is met by a limited supply of high-quality retail space. In secondary locations, by contrast, lettings activity remains subdued.

Prime rents for retail space remained stable in most European markets during the first half of 2026. For the coming twelve months, Colliers expects prime rents to remain unchanged in traditional city-centre shopping streets in 89 per cent of the EMEA markets surveyed. For luxury shopping streets and shopping centres, this figure stands at 83 per cent in each case. Some cities, however, recorded rent increases, including Birmingham, Copenhagen and Brussels.

Shopping centres are regaining importance amongst European investors. Following the price corrections of recent years, the adjusted valuations are creating scope for the repositioning of shopping centres and active asset management.

The average net initial yield for traditional shopping centres in Europe stood at 6.31 per cent at mid-2026, up from 6.28 per cent a year earlier. For city-centre retail properties, it stood at 4.16 per cent. Yields have therefore remained virtually unchanged over the past twelve months.

In the EMEA region, shopping centres, outlet centres and retail parks accounted for around 77 per cent of retail investment volume in the first half of 2026 – significantly higher than the average of 66 per cent for the years 2021 to 2025.

Colliers expects investment activity in the EMEA region’s retail property market to remain selective over the coming months. In Europe, weakened consumer confidence, persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty are weighing on the market environment. Forecasts from Oxford Economics also indicate that real retail spending is likely to continue to vary across individual European countries.

The full EMEA Retail Snapshot 11/2026 is available to download here: http://www.colliers.com/en-xe/research/emea-retail-snapshot-november-2026