The phase of trade policy uncertainty as a result of US customs policy has left its mark on the German logistics market. While the recent agreement between the EU and the US is an important signal, it does not yet mark a return to the trade stability of previous years. "Short-term market reactions are currently clouding the view of the actual impact of the agreement. In order to avoid costs due to announced tariffs, goods were imported early in many places. This increases inventories in the short term and masks the medium and long-term effects of trade disruptions and global uncertainty," explains Karl Klaffke, Senior Consultant Research at Savills:
Leases are postponed – demand potential remains
In the first half of 2025, take-up in the German logistics leasing market increased slightly compared to the previous year, but remained below the 5-year average. Sebastian Lindner, Head of Industrial Agency Germany at Savills, comments: "The uncertainty of the past few months has led many users to postpone their leasing decisions. Landlords were therefore more willing to negotiate rents in order to secure long-term contracts. If the situation in the trade conflict proves to be stable, catch-up effects are to be expected."
In addition, structural changes, such as the diversification of supply chains or a conceivable shift of Chinese overcapacity to Europe, could create additional demand for logistics space in the medium term.
Investors are slowing down – private equity remains active
In view of the imponderables on the user market, restraint can also be observed on the investment market. In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume for industrial and logistics properties was around EUR 2.1 billion, a third below the previous year's figure – and 41 percent below the 10-year average. Private equity funds in particular were active and invested around 1.5 billion euros. On the seller side, project developers and corporates continue to dominate.
