Hamburg's market for warehouse and logistics space is developing very volatilely, but the trend is showing signs of revival again. In the first half of 2026, take-up amounted to around 192,000 square metres. At the same time, the supply of modern space available at short notice remains limited. This is one of the key findings of the current market report "Logistics – Hamburg and the North" by Avison Young.
After the years 2023 and 2024, which were marked by volatile import and export flows as well as inventory reductions, logistics activity has increasingly returned to normal since 2024/2025. Since the third and fourth quarters of 2025, Avison Young has observed a slight upturn. Impetus is coming in particular from consumer goods, replacement and efficiency projects as well as port hinterland traffic. However, there have been no major leaps in growth so far in view of the economic conditions and the cautious attitude of many users.
"The logistics market is currently showing very clearly that weak macroeconomic momentum does not automatically mean weak demand for space. The flow of goods is changing, companies are reviewing their supply chains and e-commerce continues to grow. At the same time, we can see in Hamburg that the development of truck traffic has been trending ahead of the demand for logistics space for several years. This speaks in favour of not looking at logistics solely through the classic economic lenses," says Christian Ströder, Director Market Intelligence Germany at Avison Young.
E-commerce remains a structural demand driver
Online retail in particular is one of the long-term drivers. Its share of German retail sales rose to 13.5 percent in 2025, the second-highest value measured to date. Further growth is expected for 2026. While online retail is expected to grow by 4.3 percent according to the forecasts used in the report, brick-and-mortar retail is expected to grow by only 1.6 percent. In addition to logistics, courier, express and parcel services will also benefit from this. At the same time, the Port of Hamburg remains a central factor for the regional logistics market. In 2025, seaborne cargo throughput increased by 2.5 percent, and container throughput by as much as seven percent to 8.3 million euros. In the first half of 2026, however, container throughput was around four percent below the previous year's figure. Avison Young attributes this to reduced terminal capacities in the course of ongoing modernization measures, among other things. Almost half of container hinterland traffic was accounted for by trucks in 2025.
Christian Belmar, Associate Director Industrial & Logistics at Avison Young: "The decline in the first half of 2026 should not obscure the fact that Hamburg remains a very strong logistics location structurally. The long-term perspective is decisive. The port is being modernised, trade flows are being reorganised and companies are making their supply chains more resilient. In addition, online trade continues to grow. These factors are creating demand for logistics services and thus for corresponding real estate, even with only moderate overall economic development."
Modern space between 10,000 and 30,000 square metres is particularly in demand
On the real estate market, demand is currently concentrated primarily on modern units between 10,000 and 30,000 square metres with suitable ramp logistics. Locations along the A1 and A7 motorways, on the southern Elbe and in the eastern and southern Hamburg areas are particularly in demand. For users, it is by no means the amount of rent alone that is decisive. Rather, Avison Young observes an interplay of transport and real estate costs and the availability of labour in the respective catchment area.
Suitable properties available at short notice remain scarce
"If you are looking for a larger logistics space in Hamburg today, you have to bring three factors together at the same time: location and transport costs, rent and labour potential. It is precisely this combination that significantly limits the number of locations that are actually suitable," says Belmar. "The demand is there, but it is meeting a market in which modern space that is available at short notice is rare. This stabilises rents and at the same time increases the pressure to further develop existing space and make more efficient use of existing property potential."
Shortage of space keeps rent level high
The structural shortage of supply is shaping the rental trend accordingly. For high-quality new-build and build-to-suit space in Hamburg-Süd and the port area, Avison Young currently reports prime rents of 8.00 to 9.50 euros per square metre. In the surrounding markets, including Stade, Elmshorn and Lüneburg, the rental range is around 6.00 to 7.20 euros per square metre. Rising land prices and regulatory requirements are making additional space developments more difficult. Sustainability requirements are also becoming increasingly important. Users and investors are paying more attention to energy-efficient buildings, photovoltaic systems and the conditions for alternative drives for logistics fleets. In the case of older existing properties with energy-related retrofitting requirements, on the other hand, incentives remain an issue.
Belmar: "The decisive question for Hamburg is not so much whether there is demand in principle, but where this demand can be met in the future. New space is only available to a limited extent. This makes the revitalisation of existing locations, the more efficient use of land and modern concepts on former industrial and port sites all the more important."
Billions in investments strengthen Hamburg as a business location
The market is supported by the planned investments in port infrastructure. According to the information evaluated in the market report, around eight billion euros are earmarked for terminals, road and rail connections and digitalisation by 2030. Avison Young sees this as a positive signal for logistics users and investors in the long term.
Ströder: "The asset class has also gained in importance on the investment market. In the first half of 2026, around 2.4 billion euros were invested in industrial and logistics real estate throughout Germany. In Hamburg, the investment volume for logistics real estate reached around 227 million euros, tripling compared to the same period last year. Around one third of Hamburg's commercial investment volume was thus accounted for by industrial and logistics real estate. At the same time, light industrial and new segments such as industrial outdoor storage are gaining in importance."
Outlook: Potential exists, but not a foregone conclusion
Avison Young sees both opportunities and risks for further development. Additional impetus could come from a general economic upturn, the reorganization of international supply chains through re-, near- and friend-shoring, e-commerce and the expansion of the defense sector. In this scenario, larger pre-lettings of more than 30,000 square meters could also become more frequent again and additional project developments could be initiated.
This contrasts with a possible continuing economic weakness, longer decision-making processes and evasive movements into cheaper sub-markets. For Hamburg, however, the basic finding remains: a high demand supported by the port and e-commerce meets a structurally limited supply of space.
"Hamburg has strong structural demand factors. But this does not automatically result in more take-up if there is a lack of suitable properties," Belmar summarises. "For the coming years, it will therefore be crucial how we succeed in activating additional space potential and at the same time meeting the requirements of users in terms of location, efficiency and sustainability."
