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The major infrastructure conferences of recent months tell essentially the same story. This was also the case recently at the Infrastructure Investor Global Summit in Berlin: energy transition, data centers, grid infrastructure, increasing electricity demand.
In this environment, infrastructure suddenly seems more dynamic, closer to growth, almost strategically charged. The capital requirements are enormous, the political and economic importance is high, and many projects are located exactly at the intersection of energy, technology and regulation – and thus in an environment that is more politically influenced and can only be grasped in a limited deterministic way for investors.
The asset class has changed as a result – and not just a little.
A significant part of the attractiveness of infrastructure has always been its predictability. Cash flows were largely contractually hedged, demand profiles were stable, and operational risks were manageable. That was not a disadvantage, but the real investment case.
Today, this picture is shifting. Many of the new infrastructure issues are more complex, more interconnected, and more dependent on external factors. Energy prices, regulatory interventions, technological developments and usage dynamics have a simultaneous impact on the earnings side.
This does not mean that assets have deteriorated, but that they are harder to penetrate because their risk profile has become less clear.
Anyone who has recently taken a closer look at the question of where contractually effective cash flows depend on the market at the end of the day – the keyword merchant risk is not new at this point and has already been classified in more detail elsewhere – recognizes a pattern:
What used to be relatively clearly definable is increasingly shifting to areas that seem stable at first glance. Earnings uncertainty no longer arises only where revenues are generated openly on the market, but also where they indirectly depend on market sizes.
This can be done through electricity prices, which influence the solvency of customers. About data infrastructure utilization assumptions. Or about regulatory frameworks that shift over time. Merchant risk has become less visible – not less present.
This creates a certain tension. On the one hand, there are rising expectations for growth, transformation and returns. On the other hand, the demand for stability and predictability remains.
This combination is not impossible, but it has become more challenging. And it requires a more precise understanding of the underlying cash flows and structuring expertise in favor of investors than was often necessary in the past.
