BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes investment market figures for Q2 2025
The logistics investment market generated a volume of €2.8 billion in the first half of the year, slightly below the previous year's level (-2.2%). Overall, the market is very lively, which is reflected in a very significant increase in the number of deals compared to the two comparable periods of the previous year. However, portfolio transactions and thus large-volume deals are currently lacking for a higher investment volume. Against this background, the current result deviates around 20% from the ten-year average. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
"The individual deals segment alone achieved a very good result of a good €2.3 billion, which increased significantly compared to the two half-years of the previous year and is a good 19% above the long-term average. Only in the years 2020 to 2022 was an even higher volume recorded compared to the first half of the year. In the portfolio segment, on the other hand, comparatively small parcels have so far been recorded, so that its share is still at a very low level of almost 16%," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
While transactions in the three-digit million range have so far been severely underrepresented by the few portfolio deals, the result of sales of up to €100 million is particularly remarkable: At around €2.5 billion, the second-highest volume was achieved in this class after the record year 2022.
The net prime yields did not change in the second quarter and remain at 4.25% in the A locations and 4.45% in Leipzig.
High volume in the mid-price segment
The top markets contributed a total of more than €600 million to the half-year result, which represents a 20% increase compared to the previous year and corresponds to a share of 23% of the total volume. The Düsseldorf market is particularly noteworthy, with a record result of over €250 million at the end of the first half of the year.
When distributing investments by size class, the low proportion of large-volume deals (just under 9%) is striking. This compares with the three segments between €10 million and €100 million, each of which achieved a significantly above-average result with shares of 24% to 35%. Deals between €25 million and €50 million even set a new record at just under €1 billion.
Foreign investors are responsible for 61% of the volume, which corresponds to an above-average value over the long term.
Prospects
The logistics investment market has generally shown a fairly stable development in recent quarters. The very good final quarter of 2024 stood out somewhat, after which 2025 began somewhat quieter, only to grow again in the second quarter, which has now been completed.
Various factors are currently influencing the investment market, so that the market environment is likely to remain challenging in the second half of the year. For the German economy, which continues to weaken, the special funds for infrastructure and environmental measures and the financial leeway for defence spending will provide positive impetus, which have already contributed to a brightening of sentiment, but their effect is only likely to be felt with a time lag.
In addition, the erratic US trade policy with its far-reaching tariffs remains a major factor of uncertainty for the global economy. The effects of customs policy and possible counter-tariffs are hardly foreseeable and the frequently changing framework conditions inhibit investments by companies. In addition, the geopolitical environment remains uncertain due to increasing geopolitical crises and armed conflicts.
"Against this background, a similar development of logistics investments as in the previous year seems the most likely scenario. In particular, if the large-volume transactions in preparation, which were lacking in the first half of the year for higher earnings, are successfully completed, a volume in the same range as the previous year should be achievable by the end of the year – here it was around €6.9 billion," says Christopher Raabe.
