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This year's MIPIM real estate fair in Cannes was not a place for champagne mood, but for intensive work. Although the industry has digested the interest rate turnaround, it is now confronted with the harsh reality of refinancing.
Yield curve volatility remains a nerve factor; Investors are sensitive to the environment. In the event of expiring financing, loans must be extended at significantly higher conditions. Coupled with stricter capital requirements, this forces a new, sober realism in valuations.
In this mixed situation, many are seeking salvation in the residential segment and here – in view of a weakening office market – also in the conversion of office buildings into serviced apartments. For investors, careful selection based on precise analyses of the environment and needs is more important than ever in order to ensure the sustainability of an investment in this segment, regardless of the operator and an increased supply. Here, the location and property qualities of a property are all the more decisive.
The already challenging environment is flanked by geopolitics. However, the ongoing unrest in the Middle East could lead to additional capital flows towards Europe and Germany as "safe havens", especially on the part of international investors seeking geopolitical stability and intrinsic value.
Opportunities arise for investors with strong equity capital – including family offices – who can take advantage of the market situation for targeted, valuable acquisitions and use their flexibility and speed to their advantage. In addition, there is a strong concentration of locations in all asset classes.
Overall, MIPIM has shown that we are in a "market of professionals". The following applies: If you master the refinancing hurdles with a cool head and realism, you will find attractive, sustainable investment opportunities in Germany. The ground is set for a market recovery, even if the road remains a marathon.
