Slowed momentum in the retail investment market – opportunities for the second half of the year due to a well-filled sales pipeline

In the first six months of the year, specialist stores and retail parks maintained their position as by far the form of retail with the highest turnover. They accounted for 55 percent of the transaction volume and 58 percent of all registered sales in the retail segment. More than three-quarters of these properties have a food anchor. Inner-city commercial buildings follow in second place with a volume share of 27 percent, while shopping centers occupy third place with 13 percent.

Despite the weaker market development in the second quarter, there is still potential for a revival of transaction activity in the further course of the year.

Römer: "In recent weeks, numerous local supply portfolios with volumes of more than 100 million euros in some cases have been launched on the market. Thanks to long-term leases with retailers with strong credit ratings, they continue to meet with lively interest from equity-strong, increasingly foreign investors or corporates. The decisive factor for a successful conclusion is likely to be whether buyers and sellers can continue to agree on price expectations in view of increasing price sensitivity. Measured against the current level of bond yields, food-anchored retail parks with 5.5 percent or local supply stores with 5.4 percent gross initial yield are significantly more attractive than other established property types in terms of their risk premium."

The streamlining of existing portfolios creates increasing opportunities for developmental inner-city properties and shopping centres – especially in the core-plus and value-add segments. For risk-averse buyers who want to position themselves primarily in the small to medium-sized market segment and leverage long-term value creation potential, the market will offer more buying opportunities in the coming months. In these risk categories, the differences in the pricing process are significantly higher than in the core segment.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Römer emphasises: "Volatility in the financial markets and a lower propensity to invest will continue to accompany us in the coming months. Even if the resilience of the stabilized local supply segment continues to support the retail investment market and there will be investors for core products, the other market segments will be even more affected by prolonged purchase price negotiations and price pressure. Against this backdrop, we are adjusting our forecast for the full year 2026 to the previous year's level of around EUR 5 billion in transaction volume."