The German industrial and logistics real estate market started 2026 with a transaction volume of 1.1 billion euros. Earnings were 3 percent below the previous year’s figure. With a share of 74 percent, individual transactions determined market activity. In the overall commercial context, Industry & Logistics achieved a market share of 17 percent and was in third place after offices (26 percent) and retail (18 percent).
Christian Kah, Head of Industrial & Logistics Germany at Colliers: “Transaction activity has recently been shaped by two key factors. On the one hand, further geopolitical uncertainties are causing increased volatility on the capital markets and changed financing conditions. On the other hand, the Industrial & Logistics type of use has stabilised after a phase of above-average momentum and is now largely in sync with the established types of real estate use such as offices and retail. Against this backdrop, exclusivity phases in transactions have been noticeably extended. Currently, several transactions with a volume of over 50 million euros each have been in exclusivity for several months. However, the corresponding negotiations are progressing only slowly. We also see a number of major transactions in preparation for the coming months. Overall, this supports our expectation of a solid annual result for 2026.”
Major deals over 100 million euros delayed
In the first three months of 2026, transaction activity was predominantly concentrated on small and medium-sized ticket sizes: 59 percent of the investment volume was accounted for by deals of less than 50 million euros. Only two transactions were an exception and were in the size category above 100 million euros. These included the individual sale of the Mercedes-Benz logistics centre in Bischweier to a US investor and the acquisition of a Logicor portfolio with five logistics properties by EQT Exeter Group. These deals ensured that international investors clearly dominated with a share of 66 percent. Their share was around 19 percentage points higher than in the same period last year (47 percent) and also well above the five-year average of 51 percent.
As expected, transaction activity in the first quarter was concentrated in the core-plus segment, which accounted for 35 percent of the total, in line with the five-year average of 34 percent. A limited new construction pipeline, the increasing focus of occupiers on shorter lease terms and continued restrictive acquisition criteria on the buyer side meant that the transaction volume in the core segment remained subdued overall.
“We see that a lot of capital is currently being collected in the market and that investors are willing to make transactions. The current war in Iran and the resulting increase in energy costs, and consequently also an increased risk of inflation, make short-term interest rate cuts less likely. The resulting changes in financing conditions are having an overall slowing effect on transaction activity. At the same time, we are observing that no significant purchase price reductions are currently to be expected for the current exclusivities. However, the duration and intensity of the political disputes in Iran will remain decisive for the further development of these transactions,” explains Kah.
Outlook: Renaissance of special properties dependent on regulations
The gross prime yield for core logistics properties remained stable at 4.75 percent in the first quarter of 2026. The developments surrounding the geopolitical conflicts will influence further market movements. Against this backdrop, yield levels are expected to adjust in the course of the year.
Kah concludes: “Geopolitical conflicts not only put a strain on the resilience of international supply chains, but also bring questions of European defence capability more into focus. For the logistics real estate market, this means, on the one hand, a noticeable expansion and differentiation of demand profiles, as more and more new user groups with specific safety, production and environmental requirements are entering the market. German industry is faced with the challenge of anticipating new demand impulses from the defence industry in the short term. This results in increased requirements for logistics areas, for example with regard to distance areas, hazardous substances and WGK concepts as well as property-specific security infrastructure. At the same time, investors are confronted with limited predictability of third-party usability and still unclear regulatory frameworks. This further complicates the risk and return assessment of corresponding logistics properties. On the other hand, Asian users are becoming increasingly important in the German rental market. They come from both the e-commerce sector and the manufacturing industry and are looking for space throughout Germany.”
According to Kah , Colliers expects a further increase in demand, as a new EU customs regulation for online orders under 150 euros from third countries will come into force from 1 November. As a result, the need for interim storage space is likely to increase significantly. These developments in the rental market are also being noticed by investors. Accordingly, Colliers expects an increasing number of transactions in special real estate segments in the current year, such as research and development properties and cross-dock properties. From today’s perspective, these sub-segments offer attractive long-term rental growth potential. At the same time, investors continue to face challenges – especially due to the creditworthiness requirements of Asian users and the limited third-party usability of individual defence properties.”
